Andy Newton’s Cheltenham Festival Tips Day Three (Thurs): Can Fact To File Follow Up In Ryanair?

Andy NewtonAndy Newton9 min read
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Andy Newton’s Cheltenham Festival Tips Day Three (Thurs): Can Fact To File Follow Up In Ryanair?

See Andy Newton’s Cheltenham Festival tips for DAY THREE when the meeting heads into Thursday. With the action continuing with another top seven-race card that’s headlined by the Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle (3:20pm) and Ryanair Chase (4pm)

Cheltenham Festival Tips – Day Three Best Bets (Thursday 12th March, 2026) 🏇

  • 1:20pm – Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle: BAMBINO FEVER 
  • 2:00pm – Jack Richards Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase: KOKTAIL DIVIN
  • 2:40pm – Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle: LOSSIEMOUTH
  • 3:20pm – Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle: BOB OLINGER / MA SHANTOU
  • 4:00pm – Ryanair Chase: FACT TO FILE 
  • 4:40pm – Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle: C’EST DIFFERENT / MINELLA SIXO 
  • 5:20pm – Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase: JERIKO DU REPONET / PRENDS GARDE A TOI

Also see Andy Newton’s Cheltenham Festival trends for day three – giving all the key stats based on past history.

Plus catch Andy’s weekly horse racing views and tips on The Final Furlong podcast with host Emmet Kennedy and guests.

Andy Newton’s 1-2-3 Cheltenham Festival Tips On Thursday (Plus Three BIG Stats For Each Race)

1:20pm – Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle

Last season’s Champion Bumper winner Bambino Fever will be one of the big Cheltenham Festival bankers of the meeting – and it’s easy to see why.

Yes, she was beaten by Old School Outlaw on her hurdles debut at Naas back in December, but likely needed that run.

She’s since bounced back to win as she liked at Fairyhouse – jumping well that day too.

Oldschool Outlaw has certainly done nothing wrong and herself won again since beating Bambino.

But JP mares are 0-12 in this race and Willie Mullins (Bambino) has won five of the 10 runnings, whereas Gordon Elliott is still hunting his first.

Echoing Silence can go well of those at bigger prices for the De Bromhead yard that won this in 2021 and 2025.

She heads here with nice wins at Cork and Punchestown.

But Bambino is the call to give Mullins a sixth win in this 2026 Cheltenham Festival race.

Take Fever to give the others a headache!

🥇BAMBINO FEVER
🥈ECHOING SILENCE 

🥉OLDSCHOOL OUTLAW 

KEY STATS 📈

  • 7 of the last 10 winners trained in Ireland
  • All 10 winners aged 5 or 6
  • JP McManus mares are 0-12


2:00pm – Jack Richards Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase

The next ITV Racing scheduled race on day three is the Jack Richards – a prize trainer Paul Nicholls won last season with Caldwell Potter.

He tries again with Regent’s Stroll, who is part owned by Manchester United’s former boss Alex Ferguson, and looks to hold a leading chance.

If running CD winner Jordans Cross has had a top season, but is 6lbs higher than his last win here.

Anyway was runner-up in 2025 and is off the same mark. He’s been poor this season, but if getting into the race – looks over-priced.

I think this race could be perfect for KOKTAIL DIVIN too, having not stayed 3m two runs back but winning well last time over 2m 5 1/2f at Leopardstown.

While with only three runs over fences is unexposed and has been freshened up for the Festival with his trainer Henry De Bromhead giving him 74 days off.

But I also feel Meetmebythesea is interesting. I was taken by his win at Ayr in January, while last time he was highly-tried in the Game Spirit behind Lulamba.

This will be easier back into a handicap and his running style suggests the longer trip here (2m 4 1/2f) will be right up his street.

Meetmebythesea is very much respected for JP, but Koktail just edges it and is taken to land the drinks money here.

🥇KOKTAIL DIVIN
🥈
MEETMEBYTHESEA
🥉ANYWAY 

KEY STATS 📈

  • 14 /17 – finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 13/14 – trained in Britain
  • 13/14 – ran 3 or 4 times over fences before


2:40pm – Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle

A race with little depth but still a fascinating affair – with two of the best jumping mares in training locking horns.

LOSSIEMOUTH has won the last two runnings of this race and is expected to head here instead of the Champion Hurdle on Tuesday.

She comes into race off the back of a defeat in the Irish Champion Hurdle to Brighterdaysahead. But never looked at home that day over the shorter trip.

Lossie Is Still Unbeaten At Cheltenham

I think it’s fair to say she’s much better over this 2m4f distance and, as we know, she’s unbeaten here at Cheltenham (4-4).

Yes, there are some rumours she’s not been working that well at home and that last DRF race was a tough one for her.

Maybe with 17 career runs, things are slowly starting to catch up with her?

And she certainly won’t get things all her own way with the promising Gordon Elliott-trained Wodhooh in the race.

This 6yold landed the Martin Pipe last season in facile fashion and has only lost once over hurdles from 10 tries.

However, that sole loss came against Lossiemouth at Aintree last season – going down 2 3/4 lengths.

So, despite being another year older and returning better than ever this season (wins at Ascot and Leopardstown), she’s still got that ground to make up against a horse who is yet to lose at Prestbury Park.

Gordon Elliott’s sole win in the race came in 2017 with Apple’s Jade.

Overall, it’s a tricky one, – but the head and heart still say Lossiemouth as she looks to give Willie Mullins win number 12 in this race.

🥇LOSSIEMOUTH
🥈WODHOOH

🥉TAKE NO CHANCES

KEY STATS 📈

  • Willie Mullins has 11 wins in the race
  • 15/18 – Trained in Ireland
  • 13/18 – Won last time out


3:20pm – Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle

Another tough race to call.

Do you go with the old guard in the last two winners – Teahupoo and Bob Olinger?

Or side with the possible new kids on the block in Honesty Policy, Kabral Du Mathan or Ma Shantou?

For me, the recent winners in Teahupoo and Bob Olinger, who loves it here (4-4) are solid. With last year’s winner the much better value at a track he’s yet to lose at.

Yes, he’s now 11, but Sire Du Berlais landed this aged 11 in 2023 so it can be done and despite his age this De Bromhead horse has only had 20 runs and one since taking this last season.

Teahupoo looks sure to hit the frame at worst again, but has also been beaten twice in this race – don’t forget.

I think Honesty Policy is getting there in this sphere but might just need another year.

While I’ve been impressed with Kabral Du Mathan this season since his switch to Dan Skelton (2 wins). And was very impressive in the Relkeel Hurdle last time.

The last horse to do the double was More Of That in 2013.

Ma Shantou Loves Cheltenham 

Then there’s Ma Shantou, who also seems to love Cheltenham. He’s 3-4 at the track and has won his last three here (all this season).

His only loss when 7th in the Albert Bartlett last season.

The last was an impressive win in the Cleeve Hurdle on Trials Day – beating Impose Toi by 7 lengths.

His trainer Emma Lavelle also knows a thing of two about winning the Stayers’ Hurdle. Having taken the pot in 2019 with Paisley Park.

Who was also the last horse to do the Cleeve/Stayers double.

Overall, I like Kabral Du Mathan, but I think he’s just got it to prove at this level.

Teahupoo is solid, but the drying ground might be against him – so I think at the prices the two course lovers MA SHANTOU and BOB OLINGER are the way to go here.

🥇BOB OLINGER
🥈MA SHANTOU 

🥉TEAHUPOO 

KEY STATS 📈

  • 8/19 – ran in the Cleeve Hurdle that season
  • Horses beaten in the race before don’t have good records
  • 17/29 – placed at the Festival before


4:00pm – Ryanair Chase

With Jonbon heading straight to Aintree and missing the Festival, then it’s hard to see beyond FACT TO FILE here.

Many will be lumping the winner of last year’s race in with Bambino Fever in the opener on day three and it’s easy to see why.

He put in the best staying chasing performance of the season at the DRF last month and will be fine back in trip.

12 months ago he routed the Ryanair Chase field by 9 lengths, with Heart Wood taking the silver and really that same forecast looks on the cards here.

As my Final Furlong Podcast pal Emmet Kennedy says – “Don’t Over-complicate Your Mind”.

This is Fact To File’s race to lose.

🥇FACT TO FILE
🥈
HEART WOOD
🥉IMPAIRE ET PASSE 

KEY STATS 📈

  • 6/10 – Trained by Willie Mullins
  • Last 12 winners French-bred
  • 18/21 – From the top 3 in the betting


4:40pm – Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle

In the last 10 runnings of this race there been one of the best Pertemps Hurdle trends that has built up. One that’s given the winner NINE times.

This stat is to hunt out horses that have are wearing a tongue-tie – with all bar the 2022 winner Third Wind wearing one.

Therefore, once the final decs are out, this top stat is certainly worth looking out for – just check for a little lowercase ‘t’ next to the horse’s name.

Anyway, the Skelton runner here Supremely West has been the subject of many preview night whispers, with many saying this is a typical ‘plot job’ by the yard.

The horse was given an ‘interesting’ ride in this last three after running third to Stayers’ Hurdle hopeful Ma Shantou at the October Meeting.

He’s not down to 135 and will have only 10st-4lbs here – but unless you were on at bigger prices, he’s little value now.

Sam Thomas Hurdler On The Up

C’EST DIFFERENT has impressed this season and won his last four. Is up another 10lbs here but looks the sort to have more to come.

With the Sam Thomas camp also giving him 2 months off after that last run to freshen up.

But Gordon Elliott has a good record in this too – winning three of the last eight, so anything he runs is noted.

Including Staffordshire Knot, who is back into a handicap after running well in graded races this season – and comes here having won the G2 Boyne Hurdle at Navan.

He was, however, only 9th in the Coral Cup last time and is rated 9lbs higher this time.

Elliott could also run MINELLA SIXO, who looks interesting too. He was only a neck behind Melbourne Shamrock last time at Naas but is 3lbs better off this time.

He’s won on better ground in the past too and does have Festival experience after running in the Martin Pipe last season (albeit well back).

🥇C’EST DIFFERENT
🥈
MINELLA SIXO
🥉SUPREMELY WEST 

KEY STATS 📈

  • 9/10 – Wore a tongue-tie
  • 3/8 – Trained by Gordon Elliott
  • 13/14 – Aged 8 or younger
  • Last 14 winners carried 10st-9lbs

5:20pm – Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase

To owner JP McManus could be mob-handed here in a race he’s won with Any Second Now and in 2024 with subsequent Gold Cup winner Inothewayurthinkin.

His JERIKO DU REPONET has been the buzz horse for much of the season – with, again, some interesting runs and he gets in there with just 145.

Nicky Henderson has also won this race three times in the past, with his first in 1990 and his last in 2005 with Juveigneur.

He’s down to a mark of 145 now and despite this still giving him 12st and top-weight, you feel this has been a target for some time (up 4lbs).

JP could also have Waterford Whispers, Uhavemeinstiches and Montregard in the race. With the last-named interesting after a nice win at Ascot last time.

So, even though the price has gone somewhat, he could still take some beating – don’t forget he was also runner-up in the Pertemps last season, so knows all about the Festival.

Plus was touted at a Supreme winner back in 2024, only to be pulled up in that race behind Slade Steel.

Last Year’s Winner Daily Present Returns

We could also get last year’s winner Daily Present back.

He’s done little since and is rated 6lbs higher this time, but the return to Cheltenham could spark him back to life for the shrewd Paul Nolan yard.

But the Irish and in particular Gordon Elliott have won well in this race (Elliott 2 wins since 2016), so his PRENDS GARDE A TOI is chanced too.

This Gigginstown runner was a staying on fourth last time at Punchestown on heavy. But has won on better ground in the past too.

That came in a Listed Handicap Chase, so the form looks fair and with just six runs over fences looks the sort to have more to come.

Oh, and for those that saw the recent Final Furlong Podcast, if Mister Coffey wins – that could be me done!!

🥇JERIKO DU REPONET
🥈
PRENDS GARDE A TOI
🥉DAILY PRESENT 

KEY STATS 📈

  • 10/14 – Rated 137-143
  • Patrick Mullins still to ride the winner
  • 10/13 – aged 7 or 8
Andy Newton

Andy Newton

Andy is a horse racing journalist and betting expert who specializes in trends and stats. With his long association with FromTheStables, Andy has also built-up solid contacts with some of the best stables in the UK. He also writes for GeeGeez and has produced content for bookmakers Matchbook and BetBright in the past, plus was the former sports betting editor of odds comparison site Easyodds and Juicestorm. Andy has also appeared on betting podcasts for MatchBook and has featured in the popular Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Guide. Plus, has also ghost written for former top jockey Richard Dunwoody and has had a regular monthly column in the Racing Ahead horse racing magazine for 15 years. Andy is now a regular on ReadHorseRacing.com - giving his views, trends and tips on horse racing - if there's a stat to be explored, Andy is sure to find a betting angle to use. You can also see his popular daily horse racing cheat sheet that highlights best bets, NAP's, hot trainers, fun facts, key stats, longest travellers and much more. While, finally, you can also hear Andy's weekly horse racing views and best bets on the popular Final Furlong podcast alongside host Emmet Kennedy and guests - available on all good podcast platforms including YouTube and Spotify.

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