See below the key John Smith’s Cup trends and stats that you can apply to the final runners of the big York race on Saturday 11th July.
Including top trends like 83% of the last 24 winners aged 5 or younger, while 15 of the last 24 winners were drawn in stall 9 or higher.
It’s also been a good race for trainers Roger Varian, William Haggas and Andrew Balding in particular, who has won 3 of the last 7 runnings.
The York race is due off at 3:45pm and part of the Saturday ITV Racing schedule this weekend.
John Smith’s Cup Trends and Stats
- 22/24 winners returned at 20/1 or shorter
- 22/24 had already won over at least 1m1f
- 20/24 were aged five or younger
- 16/24 returned at 14/1 or shorter
- 15/24 were drawn in stall nine or higher
- 15/24 carried 9st 4lb or less
- 14/24 were four-year-olds
- 14/24 had made between three and five starts that season
- 13/24 finished in the first four on their previous start
- 13/24 were officially rated between 99 and 105
- 10/24 had previously raced at York
- Six of the last 24 ran at Royal Ascot on their previous outing
- Richard Fahey has trained three winners
- William Haggas has trained three winners
- Andrew Balding has trained three winners, including three of the last seven renewals
- Roger Varian has trained two winners in the last 12 runnings
- Only one horse older than six has won since 1960
- Twelve of the last 15 winners were aged four or five
- Nine of the last 12 winners carried 9st 3lb or more
- The average winning SP over the last 24 years is 11/1
Betting Market
Pride Of America rewarded supporters at 18/1 in 2023, while Fox Legacy followed up at 10/1 last year.
Those results continue a long-standing pattern, with 22 of the last 24 winners returning at 20/1 or shorter.
That doesn’t necessarily mean concentrating on the front of the market, though. Ten of the last 14 winners started at double-figure odds, ranging from 10/1 to 33/1.
Overall, 16 of the last 24 winners were sent off at 14/1 or shorter, while the average winning SP during that period works out at 11/1.
10-1 FOX LEGACY wins the John Smith's Cup Handicap under PJ McDonald 🏆@AndrewBalding2 | @yorkracecourse pic.twitter.com/gPZGrsG14i
— ITV Racing (@itvracing) July 12, 2025
Favourites
The record of favourites is far less encouraging.
Since 2007, only one favourite has won the race, and even that came with an asterisk. Anmaat, successful in 2022, shared favouritism rather than heading the market outright. The same applied to Fairmile in 2006.
That means it’s now been 20 renewals since the last outright winning favourite, Mullins Bay, who justified 4/1 favouritism in 2005.
Last year’s favourite, Archivist, ran with plenty of credit but could only finish third at 15/8.
Age
Age has traditionally been an important angle, although six-year-olds have enjoyed success in recent years, winning in both 2021 and 2023.
Even so, 20 of the last 24 winners (83%) were aged five or younger.
Looking back even further, only one horse older than six has won the race since 1960, with the seven-year-old Educate scoring in 2016.
The 2020, 2022 and 2024 winners were all four-year-olds, while horses aged four and five have accounted for 12 of the last 15 renewals. Fox Legacy also fitted that profile when winning last year.
Trip
With the John Smith’s Cup run over 1m2½f, proven stamina is usually essential.
That certainly shows in the statistics, with 22 of the last 24 winners having already won over at least 1m1f.
Most of this year’s contenders are likely to meet that requirement, but it’s still a trend worth checking, particularly if any runners are stepping up significantly in distance.
Draw
You might expect the draw to have little influence over this trip, but the numbers suggest otherwise.
Fifteen of the last 24 winners have emerged from stall nine or higher, representing a healthy 63%.
The trend has softened a little in recent seasons. Pride Of America won from stall two in 2023, while Enfjaar scored from gate one in 2024.
However, Fox Legacy restored the pattern last year by winning from stall 19.
Recent Form
Recent race fitness has also proved significant.
Fourteen of the last 24 winners had already made between three and five starts during the season.
It’s also worth paying close attention to horses arriving in form, with 13 of the last 24 winners having finished in the first four on their previous outing.
Royal Ascot form is another angle worth noting. Seven of the last 24 winners had raced at the Royal Meeting the month before, including Fox Legacy, who finished sixth in the Royal Hunt Cup before landing this race.
Previous Track Form
Previous experience at York isn’t essential, although it has helped.
Ten of the last 24 winners had already raced on the Knavesmire.
That said, 58% of winners had never run at York before, so it’s not a trend to put too much emphasis on. York is a fair, galloping track with a long home straight, and newcomers generally adapt well to the course.
Weight
Enfjaar carried 9st 1lb to victory in 2024, while Fox Legacy defied 9st 4lb last year.
Overall, 15 of the last 24 winners have carried 9st 4lb or less.
That trend may be beginning to change, however. Nine of the last 12 winners have shouldered 9st 3lb or more, so it’s probably one to treat with a little caution rather than following blindly.
Top Stables
William Haggas has built an excellent record in the race, winning it three times since 2011, including Sinjaari’s success in 2020.
Andrew Balding has been equally impressive, landing the prize three times in the last seven years, including Fox Legacy’s victory in 2025.
Roger Varian also boasts two wins since 2014 after Enfjaar struck in 2024.
Richard Fahey deserves a mention too. His stable enjoyed a particularly productive spell between 2002 and 2008, winning the race on three occasions.
Top Jockeys
There is no standout jockey trend.
In fact, each of the last 12 renewals has been won by a different rider.
Overall, the strongest angles remain the poor record of favourites and the dominance of horses aged five or younger.
Add in an Andrew Balding runner – particularly one owned by King Power – carrying 9st 3lb or more, and you’ll be following several of the race’s strongest historical trends.
Recent John Smith’s Cup Winners
- 2025 Fox Legacy 10/1 Andrew Balding
- 2024 Enfjaar 15/2 Roger Varian
- 2023 Pride Of America 18/1 Amy Murphy
- 2022 Anmaat 5/1 (Joint Fav) Owen Burrows
- 2021 Johnny Drama 22/1 Andrew Balding
- 2020 Sinjaari 11/1 William Haggas
- 2019 Pivoine 14/1 Andrew Balding
- 2018 Euchen Glen 20/1 Jim Goldie
- 2017 Ballet Concerto 8/1 Sir Michael Stoute
- 2016 Educate 18/1 Ismail Mohammed
