Ahead of the 152nd running of the ‘Run For The Roses’ you can see Andy Newton’s Kentucky Derby tips and 1-2-3 picks, in what looks like being another super-competitive renewal.
Obey Commandment In Kentucky Derby, Says Andy Newton
In recent years one of the best ways to find the Kentucky Derby winners is to look back at the Florida Derby, which is run just over a month earlier at Gulfstream Park.
Why?
Well, since 2006 the Florida Derby has produced six Derby winners.
Plus, last year’s winner Sovereignty was runner-up in that Gulfstream Park contest before being draped in roses.
Florida Derby/Kentucky Derby Winners
- 2017 Always Dreaming
- 2016 Nyquist
- 2013 Orb
- 2008 Big Brown
- 2006 Barbaro
Meaning this year’s winner COMMANDMENT is a very interesting contender to win the Kentucky Derby prize money.
Okay, this Wathnan Racing-owned 3yold only just got home by a nose and faces the runner-up (Puma) again.
However, the Brad Cox runner needed every inch of that 1m1f trip, so you feel the slight step up in distance (1m2f) on Saturday and the long Churchill Downs straight will be right up Commandment’s street.
He’s also been handed post position 6, which seems more than okay based on his likely hold-up style again.
While, since coming 4th on debut last year at Keeneland, he’s remained unbeaten in four.
The Cox team’s only Kentucky Derby win came in 2021 with Mandaloun was awarded the race when Medina Spirit was disqualified – but they are taken to land one on less controversial terms this time.
Commandment will also be ridden by Luis Saez, who is still to win the Derby but has a stack of big-race wins to his name.
Including two Kentucky Oaks wins, plus a Saudi Cup and Dubai World Cup.
I’ll take Commandment to rule on Saturday.
Kentucky Derby Tips: So Happy and Emerging Market Best Of The Rest
Away from the main Kentucky Derby tip, the Mike E Smith-ridden SO HAPPY and the lightly-raced EMERGING MARKET can do best of the rest.
So Happy was last seen winning the Santa Anita Derby at the start of April – powering home to win by 2 3/4 lengths and there could be more to come.
He’ll have every assistance in the saddle too, with the veteran Mike E Smith having two Derby wins to his name – notably on the Triple Crown hero Justify in 2018.
Emerging Market has only raced twice and the Kentucky Derby trends tell us that level of experience is often not a plus.
However, this Chad C Brown runner could be the exception to this rule, with gate 15 a plus – with 5 winners in the last 32 runnings coming from stall.
He was last seen winning the Louisiana Derby by a head over Pavlovian and will have Flavien Prat, who won the Derby in 2019 on Country House, doing the steering.
🥇(6) – COMMANDMENT
🥈(8) – SO HAPPY
🥉(19) – EMERGING MARKET
You can also see how the Eddie Olczyk Kentucky Derby tips compare with Andy Newton’s here.
WATCH: Commandment Winning The 2026 Florida Derby
Key Kentucky Derby Stats 📈
- 13/14 – Drawn gate 5 or higher
- 12/14 – Favorites placed
- 11/14 – Had never won at Churchill Downs (79%)
- 11/14 – Had never raced at Churchill Downs (79%)
- 9/14 – Won over at least 1m1f (64%)
- 9/14 – Ran in the last 5 weeks (64%)
- 8/14 – Won last time out (57%)
- 7/14 – Won 3+ races previously (50%)
- 6/14 – Winning favorites (none since 2018) (43%)
- 6/14 – Drawn gates 5–8 (43%)
- 6/14 – Drawn gates 13–19 (43%)
- 5/14 – Ran at Gulfstream Park last time (36%)
- 3/14 – Trained by Bob Baffert (21%) (6 in total)
- No winner has ever come from gate 17
- The last winner from gate 1 was 1986
- The last winner from gate 2 was 1978
Well-Fancied Renegade Will Try To Overcome The Dreaded Gate 1
Arkansas Derby winner Renegade is another of the well-fancied 2026 runners this year.
But the Todd Pletcher runner has been handed the dreaded gate 1 in his bid to win the 2026 Kentucky Derby purse.
The last winner from the lowest berth was Ferdinand in 1986.
However, those looking to dismiss this stat will say the starting stall position has changed slightly since 2020.
While the running style of Renegade (held up) will mean the inside start, won’t be too much of an issue as he’ll be held up anyway.
As a sidenote, we’ve also never seen a winner from gate 17 (Six Speed).
And the last winner from stall 2 was Affirmed in 1978 – this year’s number 2 is Albus.
The Todd Pletcher barn have won the Derby twice (2010, Super Saver and 2017, Always Dreaming)
WATCH: Renegade Winning The 2026 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park
Kentucky Derby Start Time & Date
📅 Date: Saturday, 2nd May 2026
⌚ Time: 11:57pm UK – 6:57pm ET
🏇 Racecourse: Churchill Downs
🔄 Trip: 1m2f
💷 Winner: £2,222,220 (Kentucky Derby Purse)
📺 TV: Sky Sports Racing / NBC / Peacock
