Ahead of this weekend’s ‘Run For The Roses’, you can put history firmly on your side by leaning on our Kentucky Derby trends for 2026.
These key Churchill Downs stats help you zero in on the strongest horse profiles based on past winners-giving you a better shot at landing on the right one.
For instance, did you know that 13 of the last 14 Kentucky Derby winners broke from gate 5 or higher?
Kentucky Derby Trends 2026: Churchill Downs Stats From the Last 14 Runnings
The 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby takes place at Churchill Downs in 2026, and by Sunday, another name will be etched into racing history-joining greats like Triple Crown winners Justify and American Pharoah.
Last year, it was the Godolphin-owned Sovereignty, trained by William Mott, who edged into the history books – beating the Michael McCarthy-trained Journalism by 1 1/2 lengths.
Sovereignty went onto land another of the US Triple Crown races – the Belmont Stakes – but didn’t run in that year’s Preakness Stakes.
But he added the Jim Dandy Stakes and the Travers Stakes – both run at Saratoga – that season.
So, to help you find this year’s Churchill Downs winner, we’ve looked back at the last 14 renewals to highlight the key Kentucky Derby trends for 2026-giving you a clear picture of the typical winning profile.
Take this: every one of the last 14 winners had run within the previous seven weeks.
And although there hasn’t been a winning favorite since 2018, market leaders have still claimed six of the last 14 runnings (46%).
With last year’s market leader Journalism grabbing the silver.
Kentucky Derby Trends 2026
- 14/14 – Ran in the last 7 weeks (100%)
- 14/14 – US-bred winners (100%)
- 13/14 – Drawn gate 5 or higher (93%)
- 12/14 – Favorites placed (86%)
- 11/14 – Had never won at Churchill Downs (79%)
- 11/14 – Had never raced at Churchill Downs (79%)
- 9/14 – Won over at least 1m1f (64%)
- 9/14 – Ran in the last 5 weeks (64%)
- 8/14 – Won last time out (57%)
- 7/14 – Won 3+ races previously (50%)
- 6/14 – Winning favorites (none since 2018) (43%)
- 6/14 – Drawn gates 5–8 (43%)
- 6/14 – Drawn gates 13–19 (43%)
- 5/14 – Ran at Gulfstream Park last time (36%)
- 3/14 – Trained by Bob Baffert (21%)
- 3/14 – Unbeaten entering race (21%)
- 3/14 – Ran at Santa Anita last time (21%)
- 2/14 – Trained by Doug O’Neill (14%)
- 2/14 – Ridden by John Velazquez (14%)
- No winner has ever come from gate 17
- The last winner from gate 1 was 1986
- The last winner from gate 2 was 1978
Kentucky Derby Trainer Stats
- Bob Baffert – 6 wins (1997, 1998, 2002, 2015, 2018, 2020)
- D. Wayne Lukas – 4 wins (1988, 1995, 1996, 1999)
- Doug O’Neill – 2 wins (2012, 2016)
- Todd Pletcher – 2 wins (2010, 2017)
- William Mott – 2 wins (2019, 2025)
- Brad Cox – 1 win (2021)
- John Shirreffs – 1 win (2005)
When Is The Kentucky Derby (UK Start Time & Date)?
📅 Date: Saturday, 2nd May 2026
⌚ Time: 11:57pm UK – 6:57pm ET
🏇 Racecourse: Churchill Downs
🔄 Trip: 1m2f
💷 Winner: £2,222,220 (Kentucky Derby Purse)
📺 TV: Sky Sports Racing
Kentucky Derby Trends 2026 – Analysis
Let’s dig a little deeper into what these trends are really telling us-especially now the final field is set.
Kentucky Derby Low Gates Haven’t Fared Well
Horses drawn low haven’t enjoyed much success in recent years.
With a maximum field of 20 runners, those on the inside often struggle – either getting boxed in early or forced to burn too much energy to secure position.
The stats back it up. Gate 1 hasn’t produced a winner since Ferdinand in 1986.
While gate 2 hasn’t scored since Affirmed in 1978-who, notably, went on to win the Triple Crown.
Last year’s winner Sovereignty came from gate 16. With the 2nd Journalism in 7 and the 3rd Baeza in 19.
This year Renegade has gate 1 and Albus stall 2.
Kentucky Derby Gates 5-8 and 13-19 Stand Out
There’s a clear pattern here: 12 of the last 14 winners came from either gates 5-8 or 13-19—that’s 86%.
One major caveat, though-gate 17 has strangely NEVER produced a winner.
This year, the dreaded 17 gate has been handed to Six Speed.
In short, the most appealing stalls are: 5, 6, 7, 8, 13, 14, 15, 16, 18, and 19.
- 5 – Right To Party
- 6 – Commandment
- 7 – Danon Bourbon
- 8 – So Happy
- 13 – Silent Tactic (Scratched)
- 14 – Potente
- 15 – Emerging Market
- 16 – Pavlovian
- 18 – Further Ado
- 19 – Golden Tempo
Best and Worst Kentucky Derby Post Positions Since 1994
Gates 15 and 16 have been particularly productive, with 11 winners between them since 1994.
Combined, that’s a healthy 34% strike rate.
This year:
- Gate 15: Emerging Market
- Gate 16: Pavlovian
Kentucky Derby Post Positions Winners Since 1994 (32 years)
| POST POSITION | Wins | Strike-Rate |
| 1 | 0 | 0% |
| 2 | 0 | 0% |
| 3 | 2 | 6% |
| 4 | 1 | 3% |
| 5 | 4 | 12.5% |
| 6 | 1 | 3% |
| 7 | 3 | 9% |
| 8 | 4 | 12.5% |
| 9 | 0 | 0% |
| 10 | 1 | 3% |
| 11 | 0 | 0% |
| 12 | 0 | 0% |
| 13 | 1 | 3% |
| 14 | 0 | 0% |
| 15 | 5 | 16% |
| 16 | 6 | 19% |
| 17 | 0 | 0% |
| 18 | 0 | 0% |
| 19 | 2 | 6% |
| 20 | 2 | 6% |
Don’t Ignore California-Based Runners
Seven of the last 14 winners were trained in California, highlighting the strength of West Coast form.
That said, last year’s winner Sovereignty hailed from the William Mott barn, who trains his horses at major New York and Kentucky track.
Plus has a base in South Florida during the winter.
Florida Derby Form Holds Up
The Florida Derby continues to be a key prep race.
Twelve months ago, the 2025 winner Tappan Street didn’t run in 2025, but the second did – Sovereignty, who went onto win the race.
This year’s Florida Derby winner was the Brad Cox-trained Commandment, who is owned by Wathnan Racing.
Respect the Kentucky Derby Favorite
While the favorite hasn’t won since 2018, the market still gets it right more often than not.
With six winners from the last 14 (43%), and 12 of 14 favorites placing.
This year’s likely favorite is Renegade in a tight market, but has been handed the dreaded 1 gate.
Course Experience Not Essential
Interestingly, prior experience at Churchill Downs isn’t a must.
In fact, 11 of the last 14 winners had never even raced there-and the same number hadn’t won there either.
Baffert’s Record Speaks for Itself
Bob Baffert remains one of the most successful trainers in Derby history, with six wins-level with Ben Jones.
His first came in 1997 with Silver Charm; his latest in 2018 with Justify.
Baffert returns in 2026 with Litmus Test and Potente as he eyes win number seven.
2026 Kentucky Derby Betting Odds & Runners
- 1 – Renegade 9/2
- 2 – Albus 33/1
- 3 – Intrepido 50/1
- 4 – Litmus Test 33/1
- 5 – Right to Party 50/1
- 6 – Commandment 5/1
- 7 – Danon Bourbon 20/1
- 8 – So Happy 14/1
- 9 – The Puma 10/1
- 10 – Wonder Dean 33/1
- 12 – Chief Wallabee 7/1
- 13 – Silent Tactic 25/1
- 14 – Potente 20/1
- 15 – Emerging Market 14/1
- 16 – Pavlovian 33/1
- 17 – Six Speed 66/1
- 18 – Further Ado 6/1
- 19 – Golden Tempo 33/1
- 20 – Fulleffort 25/1
Note: Kentucky Derby odds are subject to change.
