Colonial Downs Picks Today: Who Wins the $100k Stakes Double?

Meeting Context

Our Colonial Downs picks today cover all ten races at the New Kent, Virginia oval, where first post is 12:35pm ET and the card builds to a $100,000 stakes double for the three-year-olds — the Shenandoah Stakes for fillies and the Colonial Turf Dash.

The weather is doing its bit: mostly sunny, a high near 93 degrees and no rain in the forecast, so expect a fast main track and firm, lightning-quick turf on both the inner course and the outer Secretariat Turf Course. Speed and a good post are friends of the punter here.

Michael Trombetta and Paco Lopez, last summer’s leading trainer and rider, are both well represented, and each figures prominently in our verdicts below. Odds quoted are the morning line, correct at time of writing.

It is a stacked Saturday on the East Coast — once you are done here, check out our Saratoga picks and Monmouth Park picks for the rest of the afternoon’s action.

Race 1 (12:35pm ET): $16,000 Claiming, 5½ Furlongs, Inner Turf

No	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	ML Odds
1	Jack Charles (GB)	Jareth Loveberry	Wayne Catalano	7/2
2	Blessings Bestowed	Ubardo Casique	Roland Clement III	5/2
5	Feisty Notion	Paco Lopez	Gary Williams Jr	10/1
6	Gimme Two Shots	Sonny Leon	Karen Dennehy	20/1
8	Yes Chef	Johan Rosado	Jeremiah O’Dwyer	6/1
9	Esoooo	Samuel Marin	Gerard Ochoa	5/1
11	Who’s Yer Man	Mychel Sanchez	Susan Cooney	20/1
12	Tik Tok Daddy	Jeiron Barbosa	Anthony Farrior	8/1

Plus four others.

The Favourites: Blessings Bestowed (5/2) takes a sensible class drop, while Jack Charles (7/2) gets the leading claiming stable of Wayne Catalano and in-form Jareth Loveberry.

The Value: Tik Tok Daddy (8/1) from the prolific Anthony Farrior barn can outrun his price from the outside post.

The Verdict: Blessings Bestowed to get the card off to a favorite-friendly start.

Race 2 (1:03pm ET): $50,000 Maiden Optional Claiming, Fillies 2yo, 5½ Furlongs, Inner Turf

No	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	ML Odds
3	Sock Monkey	Emmanuel Esquivel	Kenny McPeek	10/1
5	Tapit Nitro	Jareth Loveberry	Rohan Crichton	3/1
7	Life’s Pageant	Sheldon Russell	Keith Desormeaux	5/1
8	Jesse Marie	Kevin Gomez	Blake Kelly	5/2
9	Athena’s Grace	Paco Lopez	Rohan Crichton	5/1
10	Fib	Samuel Marin	Joseph Orseno	8/1

Plus five others.

The Favourites: Jesse Marie (5/2) heads the market, but the Rohan Crichton barn is double-handed with Tapit Nitro (3/1) and Athena’s Grace (5/1).

The Value: Kenny McPeek rarely ships a juvenile filly to Virginia without purpose — Sock Monkey (10/1) is interesting on debut.

The Verdict: Tapit Nitro, with Loveberry choosing well from the Crichton pair.

Race 3 (1:32pm ET): $12,500 Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs, Dirt

No	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	ML Odds
1	Dare Defying	Paco Lopez	Kevin Joy	6/1
2	City of Bling	Johan Rosado	Jeremiah O’Dwyer	6/1
8	Avigliano	Carlos Eduardo Lopez	Jorge Duarte Jr	12/1
9	Ay Papi	Nik Juarez	Rohan Crichton	6/1
10	Diamond Knife	Martin Chuan	Jamie Ness	4/5

Plus six others.

The Favourites: Diamond Knife (4/5) is the shortest-priced runner on the whole card for the ultra-efficient Jamie Ness stable, taking a marked drop into $12,500 maiden claimers.

The Value: There is not much about: Ay Papi (6/1) looks the most likely to chase the favorite home.

The Verdict: Diamond Knife — our banker of the day and the anchor of the accumulator.

Race 4 (2:02pm ET): $10,000 Claiming, 1 Mile, Inner Turf

No	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	ML Odds
2	Arjay	Samuel Marin	Kerri Raven	9/2
3	Regal Kingdom	Jevian Toledo	Keri Brion	10/1
4	Bodecream	Martin Chuan	Jamie Ness	5/1
7	Summer Vibes	Jeiron Barbosa	Anthony Farrior	12/1
8	Mo Rewards	Paco Lopez	Jamie Ness	6/1
9	Bar Fourteen	Sonny Leon	Timothy Hills	6/1
12	Create Trouble	Mychel Sanchez	Richard Dutrow Jr	5/2
13	Tok Tok (AE)	Paco Lopez	Derek Ryan	9/2

Plus six others in a full field of 14.

The Favourites: Create Trouble (5/2) for the Dutrow barn sets the standard, with Arjay (9/2) the main danger and Ness two-strong with Bodecream and Mo Rewards.

The Value: Summer Vibes (12/1) can hit the exacta at a price in a wide-open betting race.

The Verdict: Create Trouble, though this is the trickiest handicapping puzzle on the card.

Race 5 (2:30pm ET): Maiden Special Weight, Fillies 2yo, 7 Furlongs, Dirt

No	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	ML Odds
1	La Perico	Jorge Panaijo	Jose Juan Vazquez	30/1
2	Riva Red	Mychel Sanchez	Hamilton Smith	5/1
3	Press Release	Jareth Loveberry	Whit Beckman	6/1
4	Glamour N Glitz	Carlos Montalvo	Keith Desormeaux	8/1
5	Controlling	Samuel Marin	Graham Motion	8/1
6	I’m With Her	Nik Juarez	Mark Simms Jr	15/1
7	No One Else’s	Emmanuel Esquivel	Jorge Duarte Jr	6/1
8	Targa	Paco Lopez	Kevin Attard	5/2
9	Susan B	Jevian Toledo	Michael Stidham	7/2

The Favourites: Targa (5/2) for Canadian-based Kevin Attard, who also saddles a leading Shenandoah contender later, and Susan B (7/2) for Michael Stidham.

The Value: Press Release (6/1) for the upwardly mobile Whit Beckman barn is the one for the exotics.

The Verdict: Targa — Paco Lopez staying aboard is the tell.

Race 6 (2:58pm ET): Allowance, 1¼ Miles, Outer Turf

No	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	ML Odds
1	Lordship	Jeiron Barbosa	Graham Motion	20/1
2	War Officer	Nik Juarez	Saffie Joseph Jr	3/1
4	Alakan	Jose Vargas	Graham Motion	5/1
5	Twain	Kevin Gomez	Madison Meyers	2/1
7	Souper Attentive	Sonny Leon	Mark Casse	10/1
8	Limo	Paco Lopez	Michael Stidham	9/2
9	Zephyros	Jareth Loveberry	Mark Casse	12/1

Plus three others.

The Favourites: Twain (2/1) looks well placed at this mile-and-a-quarter trip, with Florida raider War Officer (3/1) the obvious threat for Saffie Joseph Jr.

The Value: Graham Motion, a serial winner of Colonial turf routes, runs two — Alakan (5/1) makes more appeal than his stablemate.

The Verdict: Twain in a quality renewal that would not look out of place on a stakes card.

Race 7 (3:28pm ET): Allowance, Fillies & Mares, 5½ Furlongs, Outer Turf

No	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	ML Odds
1	Clearly Sophia	Paco Lopez	Karen Dennehy	9/5
2	Finch	Forest Boyce	Sarah Nagle	9/2
5	Beyond Question	Sonny Leon	Michael Trombetta	8/1
7	The Magic Ofmovies	Horacio Karamanos	Michael Trombetta	5/1
8	Wise and Elegant	Nik Juarez	Hugh McMahon	6/1
11	Diane Lee	Xavier Perez	Sarah White	8/1

Plus five others.

The Favourites: Clearly Sophia (9/5) with Lopez up is the one they all have to beat over a course and distance that suits forwardly placed types.

The Value: Trombetta saddles two; The Magic Ofmovies (5/1) with veteran Horacio Karamanos is the pick of the pair.

The Verdict: Clearly Sophia — she goes in the accumulator.

Race 8 (3:57pm ET): Shenandoah Stakes, Fillies 3yo, $100,000, 6 Furlongs, Outer Turf

No	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	ML Odds
1	Tap Into Grace	Sheldon Russell	Brittany Russell	6/1
2	Meilani	Paco Lopez	Kevin Attard	3/1
3	Carolyncaroline	Martin Chuan	Lindsay Schultz	10/1
4	Hark Theangelssing	Ismerio Villalobos	Michael Trombetta	7/2
5	Spinelli	Samuel Marin	Joseph Orseno	5/1
6	Final Accord	Sonny Leon	Mark Casse	5/2
7	I’m Unstoppable	Angel Moreno	Charles DeMario	30/1
8	Ridgie	Daniel Centeno	Maria Bowersock	30/1
9	Yaudacity	Jareth Loveberry	Whit Beckman	20/1

The Favourites: Final Accord (5/2) won the Grade 3 Matron at Aqueduct as a juvenile for Mark Casse, but her 2026 form — fourth in the Mamzelle, second in the Penn Oaks, only sixth in the Tepin — reads like a filly the handicappers can catch. Meilani (3/1) gives Kevin Attard and Paco Lopez a live one straight after their Race 5 fancy.

The Value: Florida-bred Ridgie (30/1) rattled off three straight wins at two and returns from a five-month freshening after a Gasparilla Stakes third; any market support would be significant.

The Verdict: Hark Theangelssing (7/2) for the Trombetta stable, which farms these Colonial turf sprints.

Race 9 (4:27pm ET): Colonial Turf Dash Stakes, 3yo, $100,000, 6 Furlongs, Outer Turf

No	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	ML Odds
1	Proton	Jose Vargas	Graham Motion	6/1
2	My Boy Star	Sofia Vives	Alejandro Olais Mendieta	10/1
3	Beautiful War	Paco Lopez	David Fawkes	6/1
4	Wootun	Diego Herrera	Heather Smullen	30/1
5	Azizam (GB)	Samuel Marin	George Weaver	5/1
6	Mizner	Sheldon Russell	Brittany Russell	8/1
7	Doubting Thomas	Jorge Ruiz	Michael Trombetta	2/1
8	Ewing	Sonny Leon	Mark Casse	15/1
9	Spidey Man	Martin Chuan	Jamie Ness	9/2
10	Chasing Freedom (AE)	Daniel Centeno	Rob Atras	12/1

The Favourites: Doubting Thomas (2/1) is the class of the field for Trombetta, whose barn swept the juvenile turf stakes here last season, with Spidey Man (9/2) representing the red-hot Jamie Ness operation.

The Value: British-bred Azizam (5/1) brings a different form line for George Weaver and should relish rock-firm summer turf.

The Verdict: Doubting Thomas to give Trombetta a same-day stakes double on his home track.

Race 10 (4:57pm ET): $30,000 Optional Claiming, Fillies & Mares, 1 Mile, Inner Turf

No	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	ML Odds
1	Beara Peninsula	Johan Rosado	Jeremiah O’Dwyer	8/1
5	Devastating	Jevian Toledo	Robert Bailes	9/2
6	Authentic Wave	Jorge Ruiz	Steve Klesaris	12/1
8	Don’t Fool With Me	Paco Lopez	Mark Shuman	10/1
9	Oscar Bound	Emmanuel Esquivel	Melanie Giddings	4/1
10	Band On the Run	Jareth Loveberry	Leanne Hester	10/1
11	Duchessa	Samuel Marin	Arnaud Delacour	7/2

Plus five others.

The Favourites: Duchessa (7/2) for the shrewd Arnaud Delacour heads a competitive finale from Oscar Bound (4/1) and Virginia mainstay Devastating (9/2).

The Value: Beara Peninsula (8/1) for Jeremiah O’Dwyer is overpriced on the pick of her turf efforts.

The Verdict: Duchessa to send everyone home happy.

Accumulator

Our four-leg accumulator from the verdicts: Diamond Knife (1:32pm), Targa (2:30pm), Clearly Sophia (3:28pm) and Doubting Thomas (4:27pm, Colonial Turf Dash). At morning-line prices the parlay pays a shade over 50/1.

If you fancy a saver, add Hark Theangelssing in the Shenandoah Stakes as a fifth leg — or back her solo at 7/2. And if the Virginia card whets your appetite for more Saturday turf, our Ellis Park picks are also live now.

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