We’ve got the key Chester Cup trends and stats ahead of Friday’s big handicap on the Roodee – with info from the last 23 renewals to help find the best profiles based on past winners.
Including a the key Chester Cup draw and favourites trends that can help whittle down the runners.
Chester Cup Trends and Stats To Help Find The Winner
- 21/23 – Aged 7 years-old or younger
- 19/23 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
- 16/23 – Aged 5, 6 or 7 years-olds
- 16/23 – 10/1 or shorter in the betting
- 16/23 – Carried 9-2 or less
- 15/23 – Finished unplaced last time out
- 15/23 – Had raced within the last 2 months
- 15/23 – Officially rated between 93-99
- 14/23 – Won before over at least 2m on the flat
- 14/23 – Won from stall 7 or lower
- 11/23 – Favourites unplaced
- 11/23 – Irish bred
- 4/23 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
- 3/23 – Had won at the track before
- 3/23 – Ran at Aintree over hurdles last time out
- 3/23 – Won their last race
- 3/23 – Favourite
- 2/23 – Trained by Donald McCain
- 2/23 – Trained by Richard Fahey
- 2/23 – Trained by Ian Williams
- 2/23 – Irish-trained winners
- 2/23 – Ridden by Harry Davies (last 2)
- The average winning SP in the last 23 years is 10/1
Chester Cup Stats
- Since 1975 – all winners have been aged 8 or younger
- Since 1975 – only 4 winners aged 8 years-old
- Since 1981 – only 8 winners carried more than 9-2 to victory (but 6 of the last 8 have won with 9st +)
- Three repeat winners since 1997
- Since 1970 – only 5 winning favourites
- 13 of the last 18 winners carried between 8-11 and 9-4
- The Hills stable won the race in 1980, 1999, 2001 and 2009
- 4 of the last 15 winners came from NH yards
- 8 of the last 12 winners carried 9st or more
- 3 of the last 13 winners returned 10/1
- Jockeys Harry Davies, Ryan Moore, Jim Crowley and Jamie Spencer have won the race twice each since 2008
What’s The Best Chester Cup Age? The Youth Movement
Back in 2016, No Heretic took the spoils as an eight-year-old, and Zoffee repeated that feat in 2024. But don’t let those results fool you-they are very much the outliers.
If you want to play the percentages, look younger.
Since 1986, a staggering 37 of the last 39 winners (95%) were aged seven or under.
We saw this trend hold firm again in 2025 when East India Dock won as a four-year-old.
The “sweet spot” is even tighter lately; 15 of the last 23 winners were aged five, six, or seven.
That said, don’t ignore the four-year-olds entirely. Since 2015, they’ve grabbed four wins, boasting a solid 40% strike rate.
Still, the rule of thumb is simple: despite what Zoffee did recently, horses aged eight or older are usually safe to cross off your list.
They’ve only found the winner’s enclosure three times since 1979.
WATCH: East India Dock Winning The 2025 Chester Cup
Next stop, #RoyalAscot! 🎩
Fresh from Chester Cup glory, @JPOwenRacing now has his sights on the @Ascot Stakes with East India Dock…
— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) May 14, 2025
Recent Form & Fitness
You might think you need a horse coming off a big win, but surprisingly, top form isn’t a dealbreaker.
In fact, 65% of the last 23 winners failed to place on their previous start.
What does matter, however, is fitness.
You want a horse that’s “match-ready” – 65% of those recent winners had a run within the two months leading up to Chester.
Weight Watchers
In a handicap, weight is supposed to level the playing field, but the stats suggest it’s rarely that simple.
Historically, the advantage lies with the lighter weights; 16 of the last 23 winners (70%) carried 9st 2lbs or less.
Zoffee won with just 8st 7lbs in 2024, and East India Dock followed suit with 8st 8lbs last year.
However, keep an eye on a shifting tide: six of the last eight winners actually carried 9st or more.
This suggests that higher-quality, higher-rated horses are starting to dominate.
Speaking of ratings, the “golden zone” is usually between 93 and 99, though Zoffee managed to defy the trend by winning off a mark of 90.
WATCH: Zoffee Winning The 2024 Chester Cup
🥇 2024
🥈 2023Zoffee goes one better to achieve Chester Cup glory 🏆#ITVRacing | #BoodlesMayFestival | @hpalmerracing | @daviesharry_ pic.twitter.com/i4OHf2iNJA
— ITV Racing (@itvracing) May 10, 2024
The Famous Chester Draw
Chester is the oldest racecourse in Britain and is a tight, circular track where you’re almost always on a turn.
Over short sprints, a low draw is a massive advantage, but some punters assume that over a gruelling 2m 2f trip, the draw doesn’t matter.
That’s a dangerous gamble. In a big field, securing a good position early and saving ground on the inside is vital.
We saw the low-draw bias return with a vengeance in 2024 when Zoffee, won from stall 1, with three of the first six finishers also coming from low numbers.
Last year, East India Dock kept the theme alive from gate 6, leading home a top four who were all drawn between 4 and 8.
Long story short: 61% of recent winners came from stall 7 or lower.
Chester Cup Favourites: Friend or Foe?
Historically, the Chester Cup has been a graveyard for favourites. Since 1975, only five market leaders have actually won.
That said, the tide might be turning. East India Dock justified his 9/4 favouritism in 2025.
And while the average winning price over the last 23 years is a healthy 11/1, it’s worth noting – 16 of those winners were 10/1 or shorter.
You don’t necessarily need to hunt for a massive longshot- the winner usually sits somewhere in the top five of the Chester Cup betting odds market.
The Masters of the Craft
Harry Davies Has Won The Last Two Chester Cups
This race has a unique habit of attracting top National Hunt (jumps) trainers.
They’ve raided the prize five times in the last 15 years, including Metier’s win for Harry Fry in 2023.
On the Flat side, Richard Fahey and Ian Williams are always names to respect with two wins apiece since 2007.
The Hills family has a storied history here with four wins, and James Owen joined the club in 2025 when East India Dock won.
We’re also seeing a stronger Irish presence lately, with Dermot Weld and Aidan O’Brien both taking trophies back across the water recently.
In the saddle, keep an eye on Ryan Moore and Jamie Spencer-all two-time winners since 2008.
While Harry Davies is the most recent addition to the roll of honour after his wins in 2024 and 2025.
All eyes will also be on recent 2000 Guineas winning rider Billy Loughnane, as he’s been booked to ride for top owner JP McManus in the 2026 Chester Cup.
The “Perfect” Chester Cup Profile
If you want to follow the history, look for a horse that ticks these boxes:
- Age: 7 or younger (ideally 5, 6, or 7)
- Weight: 9st 2lbs or less (but don’t fear the classier horses carrying 9st+)
- Draw: Stall 7 or lower
- Market: 10/1 or shorter
- Favourite: Be wary of the market leader
Chester Cup Runners and Betting Odds 2026
- Galileo Dame 8/1
- Puturhandstogether 8/1
- Blindedbythelights 8/1
- Leinster 8/1
- Berkshire Sundance 10/1
- A Piece Of Heaven 12/1
- Moon Over Miami 14/1
- Alphonse Le Grande 16/1
- Alsakib 16/1
- Give It To Me Oj 16/1
- Shrimp Shady 16/1
- Spirit Mixer 16/1
- Team Player 16/1
- Zanndabad 16/1
- Align The Stars 20/1
- Maxi King 20/1
- Maxident 20/1
- Peaky Blinder 20/1
- Tribal Star 20/1
Note: Chester Cup Betting Odds 2026 are subject to change and others on request
Chester Cup Race Details 2026
📅 Date: Friday 8th May 2026
⌚ Time: 3:05pm
🏇 Racecourse: Chester
🔄 Distance: 2m 2 1/2f
💷 Winner’s prize: £87,618
📺 TV: ITV Racing / Racing TV
Recent Chester Cup Winners
- 2025 – East India Dock (9/4 fav)
- 2024 – Zoffee (9/1)
- 2023 – Metier (5/1)
- 2022 – Cleveland (6/1)
- 2021 – Falcon Eight (15/2)
- 2020 – No Race
- 2019 – Making Miracles (16/1)
- 2018 – Magic Circle (8/1)
- 2017 – Montaly (16/1)
- 2016 – No Heretic (11/1)
- 2015 – Trip To Paris (10/1)
