| Race Details | Kentucky Derby 2026 |
| Race Date | Saturday, May 2, 2026 |
| Race Time | 6:57 PM ET / 11:57 PM BST |
| How to Watch (UK) | Sky Sports Racing & ITV Racing |
| How to Watch (USA) | NBC, Peacock, & USA Network |
| Race Location | Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky |
| Race Title | The 152nd Kentucky Derby |
In the 152-year history of the “Run for the Roses” few numbers carry as much weight or as much dread as Stall 1. Especially at the Kentucky Derby. For decades, the rail has been viewed as a tactical graveyard, forcing horses to either sprint for their lives or risk being pinned against the fence by a 20-horse stampede. However, NBC’s Horse Racing Tipster Eddie Olczyk believes the 2026 renewal could potentially break the “curse of the rail”. But goes on to say, they may also come second?
Olczyk’s Saturday tickets are all revolving around the Arkansas Derby hero No.1 Renegade.
Eddie Olczyk said: “I think you have to have number one (Renegade), who was hugely impressive in winning the Arkansas Derby back in March. He won going away and I think will get every bit of the mile and a quarter of the Derby. All my tickets will be based around number 1 (Renegade) – even though it’s been forever since we’ve had a winner from post position 1.”
Despite this glowing endorsement, Olczyk is playing it smart. He tips Renegade to be the ultimate “under” horse. The one coming in second to bolster exotic payoutsrather than the outright winner.
ReadHorseRacing.com Jack Shaw’s Reality Check
While Eddie Olczyk is building his bankroll around the rail-runner, I have to wave what ReadHorseRacing.com is known for, and that is waving a statistical red flag. The math is hard to ignore: no horse has won the Kentucky Derby from Post 1 since Ferdinand in 1986.
Im a 20-horse field, the horse in Stall 1 is subjected to an immediate “squeeze” as the field converges toward the rail to save ground. Even a horse as talented as Renegade, who posted a massive speed figure in his Arkansas Derby win, faces a monumental task to navigate traffic. I argue that while Renegade is a “must-use” in trifectas for the 2026 Kentucky Derby, backing him to win is a bet against four decades of cold, hard data.
Eddie Olczyk 2026 Kentucky Derby Pick
If Renegade is the anchor for second place, who does Olczyk have on top? He is looking toward the outside and the upside with No.15 Emerging Market.
“I’m gunna go with a horse that’s only run two times and that’s number 15. Emerging Market for trainer Chad Brown and jockey Flavien Prat,” Olczyk revealed. “He won the Louisiana Derby – who many feel wasn’t a strong race. But I think the way Chad Brown talks about the horse is a plus. It was an eventful race – running wide – and probably ran a legit mile and a quarter.”
Jack Shaw’s Counter-Strike: Look to #18 Further Ado
While Emerging Market is an unbeaten “hype horse”. The Kentucky Derby is a pick em race. On the day anyone can win. I believes the real value lies slightly further out in #18 Further Ado. Trained by Brad Cox, Further Ado brings exactly what Emerging Market lacks: battle-tested experience.
While Olczyk likes Emerging Market’s wide trip in the Louisiana Derby, I would like to point out that Further Ado’s closing kick at Keeneland was visually more impressive and mathematically faster. In a race likely to be contested at a blistering pace, I pick Further Ado to mow down the field, leaving the lightly-raced Emerging Market and the rail-bound Renegade to fight for the minor placings.
Kentucky Derby 2026: Eddie Olczyk Picks vs. Jack Shaw Picks Odds
| Expert | Selection | Selection Role | Morning Line Odds | Current Odds (4pm UK) |
| Eddie Olczyk | #15 Emerging Market | To Win (Top Pick) | 15-1 | 11-1 |
| Eddie Olczyk | #1 Renegade | The Anchor (2nd) | 4-1 | 4-1 (Fav) |
| Jack Shaw | #18 Further Ado | To Win (Top Pick) | 6-1 | 5-1 |
| Jack Shaw | #12 Chief Wallabee | The Value Play | 8-1 |
How to watch in the UK
The primary home for American Triple Crown racing in the UK is Sky Sports Racing. Their coverage is comprehensive, featuring every race from the Churchill Downs undercard leading up to the main event.
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Primary Channel: Sky Sports Racing (Sky Ch. 415 / Virgin 535)
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Alternative Streaming: Sky Go App or NOW TV (Sports Pass)
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Free-to-Air Highlights: While live coverage is exclusive to Sky, look for extended highlights on ITV Racing during their Sunday morning programming.
Key Timings for UK Viewers
Because Louisville is 5 hours behind London, the Derby itself takes place in the very late hours of Saturday night/Sunday morning.
| Event Phase | UK Time (BST) | US Time (ET) |
| Early Undercard Racing | 4:00 PM (Sat) | 11:00 AM |
| Main TV Coverage Begins | 7:30 PM (Sat) | 2:30 PM |
| Pre-Race Ceremonies | 11:30 PM (Sat) | 6:30 PM |
| Official Post Time | 11:57 PM (Sat) | 6:57 PM |
