As we get closer to the big day, I have two early selections I think will be good value come race time.
First off, looking at the two at the head of the betting, Total Recall and Anibale Fly are no doubt two of the classier runners. Both ran well in the Gold Cup with differing outcomes. Total Recall was running a nice race and still was to be asked every question when coming down three out.
Unlikely to have challenged the first two, it was definitely a run full of promise in his first top-level race. Here he reverts back to a grade 3 handicap with a nice weight having been very progressive in handicaps prior to the big race. The Ladbrokes Trophy (formerly the Hennessy) is also a very good trail for the National and he won that race well. Anibale Fly looked to be a little outpaced through the Gold Cup, but more importantly stayed on really well at the end to take third.
There is no better trial than the Gold Cup and how he finished over three miles two bodes well for Aintree’s stamina test. Both are short enough at around 10/1 but given there profiles coming into this, that could be real value. Others at the top of the market have questions to answer for me. Does Black Lion truly stay the trip? Will Tiger Roll run through the odd fence, which wouldn’t be ideal around here?
Two runners I like are Colin Tizzard’s The Dutchman and Captain Redbeard from Stuart Coltherd’s yard. They tie in close together from the Peter Marsh at Haydock, a grade 2 just over three miles on heavy ground. That looks really solid form on both accounts and Captain Redbeard has an 8lb swing at the weights for a thirteen length beating.
It was slightly disappointing The Dutchman was pulled up in the National trial at Haydock, but the ground there was desperate and only three finished at distances. Captain Redbeard won next time out over hurdles, with the second 35 lengths clear of the third. At their ages (eight and nine respectively) and their racing weights 10-10 (The Dutchman) and 10-6 (Redbeard), everything looks ideal for big runs. Currently both available around 28/1, they look good value with six places paid out on each way bets.
