There’s a special kind of pain in tipping that civilians never experience: the fourth-place finish in a three-place race. On Friday at Brighton, two of the four tipsters we track walked into it holding hands, on the same horse, in the same race.
The race was the 4.00, the Harry Bloom Memorial “Brighton Bullet”, six downhill furlongs on the Sussex coast, ten runners, Class 4 handicap. The horse was U S S Charleston.
| Tipster (Publication) | Bank Yesterday | Tips (1u each) | Winners | Current Bank (units) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Templegate (The Sun) | 10.0 | 3 | 1 (33%) | 11.0 | Alive – top of the table |
| Paul Kealy (Racing Post) | 10.0 | 1 | 0 (0%) | 9.0 | Alive |
| Oddschecker (oddschecker.com) | 10.0 | 2 | 0 (0%) | 8.0 | Alive – bottom of the table |
| Andrew Asquith (Sporting Life) | – | 0 | – | 10.0 (unstarted) | No Friday tips published – starts when he does |
The Big Hits
Let’s be fair to both parties before the autopsy: the case was a good one. Paul Kealy made U S S Charleston his free play of the day in the Racing Post, arguing that “6f on a downhill track is just what U S S Charleston needs” and pointing to a 50-1 second at Goodwood and a profile built on downhill tracks. Oddschecker’s Friday column reached the same verdict independently and advised him each-way at 6/1. When a Racing Post lifer and a comparison site’s flagship column converge on the same 6/1 shot, that’s usually the market missing something.
And the run itself wasn’t bad. He was sent off at 4/1 – the money came, as it tends to when two big columns land on one horse – and he ran to his rating. The trouble is that Marcellinus, the 7/2 favourite, ran to a better one, with The Quiet Gent at 4/1 second and Tenbob Tommy at 11/1 hanging on to third.
The Eliminations & Misses
U S S Charleston finished fourth of ten. One place away from a return – days like this are a reminder of how fine the margins are in horse racing predictions. In a ten-runner handicap, standard each-way terms pay three places at a fifth of the odds. Fourth is the one position on the racecourse that pays exactly the same as pulling up: nothing.
For Kealy, settled at the 4/1 SP since no price was quoted, that’s a clean one-unit loss on his only publicly published tip of the day. His premium Friday column – three more selections – lives behind the Racing Post paywall, and this ledger has a firm rule an old failed tipster came up with the hard way: if the public can’t read it, the public record doesn’t settle it. His bank starts life at 9.0 units.
For Oddschecker it stings more, because the each-way half existed precisely to insure against this. At 6/1, a third-place finish would have returned the place stake at 6/5 and kept most of the unit intact. One length and a bit of traffic separated that outcome from the actual one. Add Falcon Nine – their 11/4 chance in Musselburgh’s 1.50, caught inside the final furlong after leading, second of seven – and Friday cost them two units from two tips. 8.0 and bottom of the table, while Templegate, who they’ll enjoy being reminded, made money on the same afternoon.
The full day-one reckoning, including how The Sun’s man profited with a beaten NAP, is in Friday’s tipster review.
Today’s Outlook
Both wounded parties are straight back on the horse, so to speak. Kealy has four Saturday picks for Shergar Cup day at Ascot – our Ascot preview covers all six team races – and Oddschecker’s Saturday tips are live on their hub, with runners at Newmarket and Haydock among the targets. Two units and one place is all that separates them. The Bullet is run once a year, mercifully.
