As the greatest jumps fixture on the planet rolls into St Patrick’s Thursday, it’s time to focus on the biggest Day Three Cheltenham Festival trends you need to know on the day.
Andy Newton’s stats are there to help you cut through the noise.
By seeing what’s happened before, you can narrow down the fields and pinpoint the strongest horse profiles.
Also See Cheltenham Festival Trends For……..
- Cheltenham Festival Day One Trends (Tues 10th March, 2026)
- Cheltenham Festival Day Two Trends (Weds 11th March, 2026)
- Cheltenham Festival Day Four Trends (Friday 13th March, 2026)
Plus get Andy Newton’s popular daily horse racing cheat sheet, including his NAP and Lay of the Day.
And his Cheltenham tips for day three here.
How To Use The Cheltenham Trends For Day Three📈
Applying horse racing trends blindly is never a get-rich-quick plan.
They won’t magically land you every big-priced winner at the 2026 Cheltenham Festival – but a lot will help.
What they will do is arm you with the context of recent history for the Cheltenham Festival ITV Racing schedule.
And that’s invaluable when you’re staring at competitive handicaps packed with 20-plus runners.
Day three Cheltenham Festival trends can be used across every race, and there’s plenty to learn from them.
Many punters find they’re especially helpful when studying past renewals of races like the competitive Pertemps Handicap Hurdle.
With a key trend in the last-named seeing 9 of the last 10 winners wearing a tongue-tie.
Use the stats below and you’ll quickly start trimming down the lists.
Take the feature race on St Patrick’s Thursday, the Stayers’ Hurdle. With one of the leading Cheltenham Festival favourites on the day the 2024 winner Teahupoo.
Festival history suggests that previous champions often mount strong repeat bids.
Since 2002, the likes of Baracouda, Inglis Drever, Big Buck’s and Flooring Porter have all lifted the Stayers’ Hurdle trophy at least twice.
So let’s dive into Andy Newton’s Day Three Cheltenham Festival trends 2026.
Cheltenham Festival Trends 2026: Put History On Your Side 📈
1:20 – Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m 179y ITV
2025 Winner: AIR OF ENTITLEMENT (16/1)
Trainer – Henry de Bromhead
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore
UK/Irish: Irish
Positive Ryanair Mares Trends ✅
• A new race (Just 10 renewals)
• All 10 winners aged 5 or 6
• 7 of the last 10 winners trained in Ireland, but 3 of last 4 UK trained
• Favourites have won 3 of the 10 runnings
• 7 of the last 10 winners won last time out
• 8 of the 10 winners had won over 2m2f or further
• 4 of the 10 winners were French-bred
• 5 of the last 10 winners were top or 2nd top rated
• 5 of the last 10 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
• 5 of the last 10 past winners started their careers in France
• 6 of the last 10 winners had run at least 4 times over hurdles
• 6 of the 10 winners were unbeaten that season
• 4 of the 10 winners have been aged 5 years-old
• 6 of the last 10 winners aged 6 (LAST 6)
• Willie Mullins won the race in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020
• Owner Mrs Susannah Ricci has won 2 of the last 10 runnings
Negative Ryanair Mares Trends❌
• British trained runners are 3-from-71
• Nicky Henderson is currently 0-from-12
• Gordon Elliott is 0-9
• JP McManus owned are 0-from-12
• 7 year-olds or older are 0-from-26
• 4 year-olds are 0-9
2:00 – Jack Richards Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (Grade 2) 2m 4f ITV
2025 Winner: CALDWELL POTTER (7/1)
Trainer – Paul Nicholls
Jockey – Harry Cobden
UK/Irish: UK
Positive Jack Richards Novices’ Chase Trends ✅
• 13 of the last 17 winners aged 6 or 7
• 14 of the last 17 winners finished in the top 2 last time
• 11 of the last 17 winners were a single-figure price
• 9 of the last 15 winners were previous bumper or point winners
• 4 of the last 9 winners ran in the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase on Trials Day
• 12 of the last 13 winners British-trained
• 6 of the last 17 winners ran over hurdles at last year’s Festival
• 15 of the last 17 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
• 11 of the last 12 winners rated 137+
• 10 of the last 17 winners had only won once over fences
• 7 of the last 10 winners carried 11-7 or more
• Brian Hughes has a good record (2 wins from just 5 rides)
• 10 of the last 11 winners returned 12/1 or shorter
• The last 11 winners carried 11-2 or more
• Trainer Paul Nicholls has won the race twice
Negative Jack Richards Novices’ Chase Trends❌
• Just 2 of the last 17 winners didn’t finish in the top 3 last time out
• Just 1 on the last 17 winners had won more than two chase races
• Only 2 of the last 17 winners aged 8 or older
• Just 2 of the last 17 winners aged 5
• Only 2 of the last 17 winners Irish-trained
2:40 – Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 3f 200y ITV
2025 Winner: LOSSIEMOUTH (4/6 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish
Positive Mares’ Hurdle Trends ✅
• Follow Irish-trained mares (15 of last 18)
• The favourite (or 2nd fav) has won 14 of the last 18 runnings
• 11 of the last 18 favourites have won
• 14 of the last 18 winners aged between 5-7 years-old
• 16 of the last 18 winners had won over at least 2m4f
• Willie Mullins has trained 11 of the last 18 winners
• Look for Willie Mullins, Nicky Henderson, Paul Nolan & Alan King runners
• 11 of the last 18 winners had won or placed at a previous Festival
• Novices generally do well
• 13 of the last 18 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 before
• 6 of the last 14 winners had won over 2m6f+ before
• Horses that began their careers in bumpers have done well
• Respect French-bred mares – won 11 renewals
• 14 of the last 18 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
• 16 of the last 18 winners had won (or placed) in a graded race against the males
• 13 of the last 18 won last time out
• Rich Ricci mares are 4-10 in the last 11 runnings
Negative Mares’ Hurdle Trends❌
• Avoid front-runners
• Winners of the previous season Dawn Run Mares’ Novice Hurdle (0-5)
• British-bred mares are currently 3-90
• Just 3 outright favourites in the last 11 runnings
• Just one winner from last 34 runners wearing headgear have won
• Be wary of Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs and Noel Meade runners
• Benie De Deaux is the only ex-flat horse to win the race
• Just 2 winners aged 8+ (Quevega & Honeysuckle)
3:20 – Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 7f 213y ITV
2025 Winner: BOB OLINGER (8/1)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore
UK/Irish: Irish
Positive Stayers’ Hurdle Trends ✅
• 15 of the last 21 won last time out
• 7 of the last 12 winners were second season hurdlers
• 22 of the last 26 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
• 31 of the last 36 winners aged between 6-8 years-old
• 19 of the last 25 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
• 19 winners since 2000 returned in single-figures in the betting
• 10 of the last 24 were French Bred
• Respect the Cleeve Hurdle and Long Walk Hurdle form
• 8 of the last 19 winners ran in the Cleeve Hurdle last time out
• 21 of the last 26 winners finished 1st or 2nd in all their hurdling runs that season
• 17 of the last 29 winners won or placed at the Festival before
• 16 of the last 21 winners started 10/1 or less in the betting
• Respect past winners of the race
• 19 of the last 29 winners had won 7 or less times over hurdles
• 3 of the last 8 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season
• Since 1987 all winners bar Bob Olinger (10) and Sire Du Berlais (11) aged 9 or younger
Negative Stayers’ Hurdle Trends❌
• Avoid horses that didn’t finish either 1st or 2nd last time out
• A 5 year-old is yet to win the race
• Horses that have lost previously in the race don’t fare well
• Trainer Willie Mullins has only won the race twice (Nicholls Canyon 2017 and Penhill 2016)
• The Irish have won the race just 8 times since 1995 (but have won the last 5)
• Just 3 winners aged 9 in the last 36 runnings
• Horses aged 10 or older have just one win since1986 (1 from 70) – 2023 year’s winner Sire Du Berlais (11)
4:00 – Ryanair Chase (Grade 1) 2m 4f 127y ITV
2025 Winner: FACT TO FILE (6/4 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Mark Walsh
UK/Irish: UK
Positive Ryanair Chase Trends ✅
• 17 of the 21 winners had won at Cheltenham before
• 8 of the last 13 winners were 2nd season chasers
• All 18 winners (since getting G1 status) had won over 2m4f
• 14 of the last 18 winners had won a Grade 1 Chase before
• 15 of the last 18 had won or placed at the Festival before
• The King George VI Chase is often a good guide (8 from 32)
• The previous year’s renewal is often a good guide
• 17 of the last 21 winners returned 13/2 or shorter
• 10 of the last 14 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
• 16 of the last 17 aged 7-9 years-old
• 17 of the last 18 winners were rated 161+
• Horse rated 170+ are 4-6
• 4 of the last 21 winners were placed in the top 3 in the Ascot Chase last time out
• 15 of last 21 winners were fav or 2nd fav
• 11 of the last 18 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
• 18 of the last 21 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
• 10 of the last 14 winners had 11 (or less) runs over fences
• Trainers Willie Mullins, Jonjo O’Neill, Paul Nicholls, Henry de Bromhead, David Pipe & Nicky Henderson are respected
• Respect first time headgear (3 from 13)
• 12 of the last 18 winners DIDN’T win last time out
• Last 12 winners were French-bred
• All winners ran 5 or less times that season
• 6 of the last 10 winners trained by Willie Mullins
• Last 14 winners aged 9 or younger
• The Irish have won 8 of the last 10 runnings
• Since upgraded, the last 18 winners ALL ran at the previous season’s Festival (2008)
• All 18 winners (since becoming Grade 1) won over minimum of 2m4f
Negative Ryanair Chase Trends ❌
• Avoid horses priced 7/1 or bigger
• No winner aged 11 or older
• Only 1 of the last 17 winners aged 10
• Just one winner rated 160 or below
• Just 6 of the last 18 won last time out
• Gordon Elliott runners 0-8
• No winner was having their Festival debut
4:40 – Pertemps Network Final (Handicap Hurdle) (Grade 3) 2m 7f 213y ITV
2025 Winner: DODDIETHEGREAT (25/1)
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Brian Hughes
UK/Irish: UK
Positive Pertemps Network Final Hurdle Trends✅
• Irish have won the last 7 of last 10 runnings
• 13 of the last 14 winners aged 8 or younger
• Last 14 winners carried 10st-9lbs+ – with 12 10st 11lbs
• 10 of the last 18 winners placed in their last race (5 won)
• 13 of the last 25 winners were from outside the top 5 in the betting
• 13 of the last 15 winners were rated 138 or higher
• 14 of the last 19 winners were rated between 131-142 (inc)
• 12 of the last 15 winners were rated between 138-148
• 12 of the last 21 winners had won over at least 2m7f
• 9 of the last 14 winners had run 10 or less times over hurdles before
• 6 of the last 13 winners ran 7 or less times over hurdles
• 9 of the last 12 winners returned 14/1 or shorter
• 8 of the last 25 winners won their last race
• 6 of the last 10 winners ran at Leopardstown last time out
• 3 of the last 17 winners finished in the first 5 in the Betfair Hurdle
• Look for Nicky Henderson, Jonjo O’Neill, Twiston-Davies and Pipe-trained runners
• Respect JP McManus-owned horses – won it again in 2019 and 2020
• Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 3 of the last 8 runnings
• Nicky Henderson has won 2 of the last 11 runnings (had 1st & 2nd last year)
• Respect horses with headgear (10 since 2000) and 9 of the last 10
• 9 of the last 10 winners wore a tongue-tie
• 7 of the last 10 winners Irish-trained
• 6 of the last 10 ran in the Leopardstown Qualifier (Christmas)
Negative Pertemps Network Final Hurdle Trends❌
• Avoid horses with less than 6 runs over hurdles
• Horses that have won 3+ times that season have a poor recent record
• Since 2000 only 1 winner didn’t have a run that calendar year
• 5 year-olds have won just twice since 1973
• Just 1 horse rated 150+ since 2000 has finished in the top 2
• Only 2 winning favourites in last 20 years
• Just 1 winner in the last 42 years aged 10+
• Willie Mullins has never won this race
• Paul Nicholls is currently 1 from 21 (One winner, One third and two 2nds in the last 12 runnings)
• Horses aged 7 or younger and priced in single-figures are just 3 from 59
5:30 – Rosconn Group Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Amateur Riders’ Handicap Chase 3m 2f RTV
2025 Winner: DAILY PRESENT (12/1)
Trainer – Paul Nolan
Jockey – Mr B T Stone
UK/Irish: Irish
Positive Kim Muir Handicap Chase Trends ✅
• Respect horses aged between 7-9 year-olds
• 10 of the last 13 winners aged 7-8
• 13 of the last 18 winners failed to win earlier that season
• 11 of the last 18 winners ran off a mark of 137 or more
• 10 of the last 14 winners rated between 137-143
• 6 of the last 7 winners were novices
• 10 of the last 16 winners returned 9/1 or shorter (top three in the betting)
• 14 of the last 17 winners carried 11st 4lbs+
• 12 of the last 17 winners ran in February
• Look for Elliott, McCain, Pipe and Henderson-trained runners
• Look for horses in the top half of the handicap
• 20 of the last 26 winners ran over at least three miles in their last race
• Look for non-claiming amateur riders
• 9 of the last 15 winners wore headgear
• 5 of the last 11 winners wore a tongue-strap
• 14 of the last 17 winners came from the top 6 in the market
• Jockey Derek O’Connor 2nd 3 times and 1st in 2019 and 2024
• Owner JP McManus often does well in the race (4 of the last 14)
• 21 of the last 23 winners DIDN’T win last time out
Negative Kim Muir Handicap Chase Trends ❌
• Just 8 Irish winners in last 42 years (but have won 8 of the last 12)
• Horses that fell or unseated that season have a poor record
• Avoid Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s just 1 placed horse from his last 25
• Trainer Willie Mullins has a poor record in the race (never won it)
• Horses carrying less than 10-10 have a poor record – but last year’s winner 10-7
• Just on winning 6yold since 1971
• French breds are 1 from 95 since 2005
• Just 2 of the last 21 winners aged 10+
• Avoid claiming jockeys – 4 from 119 since 2009
• Just 2 of the last 23 winners won last time out
• Patrick Mullins has never ridden the winner
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