When it comes to the Cheltenham Festival, the stats punters care about most tend to centre on one race — the Cheltenham Gold Cup. And this year, we could be watching history unfold as Galopin Des Champs bids for a remarkable third win in the race.
With that in mind, Andy Newton is back by popular demand, armed with the key Cheltenham Festival trends you need for Day Four.
If you’re looking to find winners on the final afternoon, this is where to start.
Also See Cheltenham Festival Trends For……..
- Cheltenham Festival Day One Trends (Tues 10th March, 2026)
- Cheltenham Festival Day Two Trends (Weds 11th March, 2026)
- Cheltenham Festival Day Three Trends (Thurs 12th March, 2026)
Plus get Andy Newton’s popular daily horse racing cheat sheet, including his NAP and Lay of the Day.
And his Cheltenham tips for day four here.
How To Use Cheltenham Festival Trends for Gold Cup Day 📈
Let’s be upfront. Statistics alone won’t guarantee you a Cheltenham winner. There’s no magic formula.
However, what they do offer, though, is a clearer picture of what successful horses have looked like in recent years.
When certain patterns keep appearing at the 2026 Cheltenham Festival, it’s rarely by accident.
And if history has shown us something consistently, there’s every chance it can do so again.
The day four Cheltenham Festival trends apply just as much to the big-field handicaps.
Like the County Hurdle and the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle.
Gold Cup Day features three Grade 1 races, beginning with the Triumph Hurdle and building towards the Gold Cup, which is live on the ITV Racing schedule.
Day four Cheltenham trends also examine recent form, age, the best trainers and weight.
Take the centrepiece, the Gold Cup. One of the Cheltenham Festival favourites is Galopin Des Champs, who is chasing racing immortality.
A win would make him the first horse since Best Mate to claim three Gold Cups.
He also represents Willie Mullins, and that’s no small detail. One of the key Gold Cup trends is that Mullins has trained four of the last seven winners.
There’s more. Eighteen of the last 25 Gold Cup winners arrived on the back of a victory. Which is a plus for King George winner The Jukebox Man.
So with all that in mind, let’s dive into Andy Newton’s Cheltenham Festival trends for Day Four.
Cheltenham Festival Trends 2026: Stats To Put History On Your Side 📈
1:20 – JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 179y ITV
2025 Winner: PONIROS (100/1)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Jonjo O’Neill Jr
UK/Irish: Irish
✅Positive Triumph Hurdle Trends
• 24 of the last 32 winners won last time out
• 9 of the last 17 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
• Irish have won 10 of the last 13 runnings
• French-breds have filled 16 of the last 27 places (last 11 runnings)
• 15 of the last 21 came from the top 4 in the betting
• 14 of the last 18 winners returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
• Respect Nicky Henderson (7 winners), Willie Mullins (6 winners), Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs and Alan King-trained runners
• The Spring Juvenile Hurdle is a good guide (2022 winner Vauban won that race and 2023 winner Lossiemouth was runner-up in it, 2024 winner Majborough was 3rd in it)
• JP McManus has owned 3 of the last 10 winners
• 2 of the last 6 winners were fillies
• 9 of the last 14 winners ran in the Spring Hurdle (3 winners)
• 10 of the last 14 winners had raced by Christmas time
• 8 of the last 11 winners began their careers in France
• Nicky Henderson has trained 7 winners of the race
• Gordon Elliott has had 2 wins and 3 seconds in the last 12 years
• Willie Mullins has won 5 of the last 6 runnings (2 with Rich Ricci-owned horses)
❌Negative Triumph Hurdle Trends
• Take on horses that have won at 2m2f or further in the past
• Avoid horses that last ran 56 days or longer ago
• Avoid horses that had run 3 or more times over hurdles
• Just 3 of the last 21 winner returned bigger than 12/1 – last year’s winner 100/1
• Be careful of horses rated 138 or lower – no winner in the last 16
• Last 8 Adonis Hurdles winners (to have run in the race) have all lost (all unplaced too)
2:00 – William Hill County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m 179y ITV
2025 Winner: KARGESE (3/1 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish
✅Positive County Hurdle Trends
• The Irish have won 13 of the last 19 runnings
• 10 of the last 11 winners were trained by Willie Mullins (6) or Dan Skelton (4)
• Willie Mullins has won 8 of the last 16 runnings
• 20 of the last 25 winners were novices or second season hurdlers
• 15 of the last 20 winners were rated in the 130’s
• 9 of the last 18 winners returned 20/1 or bigger
• 8 of the last 17 winners had run in 6 or less hurdles races
• 20 of the last 27 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
• 13 of the last 27 winners aged 5
• 8 of the last 12 winners had run at Cheltenham before
• 13 of the last 19 winners Irish-trained
• 11 of the last 18 winners started their careers in France
• 15 of the last 20 winners were priced in double-figures
• 14 of the last 22 winners began their careers on the flat
• Look for Mullins, Skelton, AJ Martins & Nicholls-trained runners
• Respect the Imperial Cup (Sandown Park) winner
• 10 winners since 2002 ran in the Ladbrokes or Betfair Hurdles that season
• 13 of the last 25 winners came from the top 5 in the betting
• 14 of the last 19 winners DIDN’T win last time out
• 5 of the last 10 winners hadn’t raced in the last 72 days
• Paul Nicholls is 4 from 33 (+14pts) since 2004-2014
• Willie Mullins is 6 from 61 (+42.25pts) – he’s won 8 of the last 16
• Trainer Dan Skelton has trained 4 of the last 10 winners
• 14 of the last 22 winners were ex-flat horses
• No back-to-back winners ever since first run in 1920
❌Negative County Hurdle Trends
• Strangely, previous course winners have a bad record
• Only 2 winners since 2000 winning with a mark of 150+
• Gordon Elliott has a poor record (0-from-27) since 2011
• Nicky Henderson has a poor record (0-35) this century
• Horses aged 9+ are 0-from 40 in last 18 runnings
• Since 1960 only 6 winners carried more than 11st 2lb
• Since 1961, only 11 winners had run at the Festival before
• Since 2005, just 2 winners rated 146 this season
• Avoid runners that hadn’t raced at least 4 times that season
• Avoid horses making their handicap debuts, although last 4 winners have defied this stat
• Just 3 winning outright favourites in last 24
• Just 4 of the last 18 winners returned a single-figure price
2:40 – Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase 2m 4f 127yds ITV
2025 Winner: DINOBLUE (6/4 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Mark Walsh
UK/Irish: Irish
✅Positive Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase Trends
• Only 5 previous runnings
• Willie Mullins trained 3 winners
• Willie Mullins has a good record in ‘mares’ only’ races at the Festival
• 4 of the last 5 winners have been 2nd favourite
• All 5 winners won last time out
• 4 of the 5 winners rated 150+
• 4 of the 5 winners owned by JP McManus (past 4)
• All 5 winners aged 7-8
• All 5 winners Irish-trained
• 4 of the 5 winners had run well at the Cheltenham Festival before
• Just one winning favourite (2025)
Negatives….
• UK-trained runners are 0-16
• 9+ year-olds are 0-12
• Gordon Elliott is 0-6
3:20 – Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Spa) (Grade 1) 2m 7f 213y ITV
2025 Winner: JASMIN DE VAUX (6/1)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish
✅Positive Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle Trends
• 11 of the last 21 winners had run at Cheltenham over hurdles before
• 18 of the last 21 winners contested a Graded Hurdle last time out
• 3 of the last 5 ran in the Golden Cygnet Novice Hurdle (Nat Lacy) DRF
• 17 of the last 21 winners won or placed in a Graded Novice before
• 7 of the last 21 winners had run in the Hyde, Bristol or Classic earlier that season
• 10 of the last 14 winners had won a Point
• Horses rated 152+ are 3-5
• 9 of the last 12 winners trained in Ireland
• 10 of the last 17 winners had won at least twice over hurdles
• 11 of the last 15 winners had won or been placed in a bumper
• 10 of the last 21 came from the top 5 in the betting
• 10 of the last 21 winner ran 47 days (or more) ago
• 16 of the last 21 had run in a race over 3m
• 18 of the last 20 winners were aged 6 (11) or 7 (7) years-old
• 15 of the last 21 winners were 1st or 2nd last time out
• 17 of the last 21 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
• 13 of the last 21 winners had 4+ runs over hurdles
• 16 of the last 20 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
• 4 of the last 20 favourites won
• Respect Jonjo O’Neill runners (2 wins, from 3 runners!)
• Trainer Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 9 runnings
• No winning fav in the last 11 runnings
❌Negative Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle Trends
• Horses that ran in the last 23 days haven’t fared well
• Challow Hurdle winners have poor Festival record
• Avoid horses that DIDN’T finish 1st or 2nd last time out
• Be wary of horses that have raced less than 3 times over hurdles
• Gordon Elliott is 1-from-16
• Be wary of ex flat horses (1 from 21)
• Nicky Henderson is 0-from-15 in the last 13 years
• 5 year-olds have a poor record (1 from 20)
• Only 4 of the last 20 winners hadn’t raced that calendar year
4:00 – Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup (Grade 1) 3m 2f 70y ITV
2025 Winner: INOTHERWAYURTHINKIN (15/2)
Trainer – Gavin Cromwell
Jockey – Mark Walsh
UK/Irish: Irish
✅ Positive Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends
• 21 of the last 26 winners ran in the Savills Chase or King George that season
• 21 of the last 25 finished 1st or 2nd last time out
• 21 of the last 26 winners were 2nd or 3rd season chasers
• 13 of the last 20 winners had run 9 or less times over fences
• 25 of the last 26 winners were Grade 1 winners
• Every winner since 2000 only had one season hurdling
• 21 of the last 25 had won or placed at the Festival before
• 21 of the last 25 winners hailed from the top 3 in the betting
• 23 of the last 26 winners had raced no more than 12 times over fences
• 16 of the last 18 winners ran 3 or less times that season
• 18 of the last 29 winners were bred in Ireland
• 18 of the last 25 winners won last time out
• 12 of the last 23 winners were favourites (52%)
• 14 of the last 21 winners yet to win beyond 3m 1/2f
• ALL of the last 26 winners were aged 9 or younger
• 25 of the last 26 winners aged between 7-9 years-old (12 of last 13 aged 7 or 8)
• 23 of the last 26 winners were in their first three seasons over fences
• Horses placed in a previous Supreme Novices’ Hurdle have a good record
• 5 of the last 15 winners ran in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase the previous season
• Trainer Willie Mullins and jockey Paul Townend have won 4 of the last 7 runnings
• Willie Mullins and Henry De Bromhead have won 6 of the last 7 between them
• The last 7 winners Irish trained (9 of the last 10 Irish-trained too)
❌Negative Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends
• Non-Grade One winners have a poor record
• No winner older than 10 years-old since 1969 (0 from 79)
• Just one winning 6 year-old since 1964
• Just one past winner for Gordon Elliott (Don Cossack)
• Horses rated 166 or less are only 7 from last 59 – but last year’s winner rated 160
• Avoid horses that had run on ‘heavy’ ground that season
• Horses wearing headgear have a bad recent record
• Only 3 winners since 2000 returned 9/1 or bigger
• Just 2 of the last 17 winners had raced more than 3 times that season
• Horses that were beaten in their first Gold Cup don’t fare well
• Only 2 winners since 2000 had previously been beaten in the race
• Just 3 of the last 25 winners placed in the race before
• No winner since 2000 ran in that season’s Cotswold Chase
4:40 – Princess Royal Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase 3m 2f 70y ITV
2025 Winner: WONDERWALL (28/1)
Trainer – S Curling
Jockey – Mr R James
UK/Irish: Irish
✅Positive Princess Royal Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase Trends
• 31 of the last 35 winners were aged under 11 years-old
• 29 of the last 40 won last time out
• 9 of the last 11 winners aged 10 or 11
• 15 of the last 18 winners ran in February
• 21 of the last 23 winners Irish or French bred
• The last 19 winners were yet to win over this trip (rules)
• 8 of the last 16 winners finished in the top 5 in the race last year
• 10 of the last 17 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
• 29 of the last 37 started out in Points or Hunter Chases
• 15 of the last 20 winners ran 34 days or less ago
• Respect the Irish runners (won 10 of last 15)
• 15 of the last 20 winners were aged 8-10 years-old
• 9 of the last 11 winners aged 10-11
• 10 of the last 17 winners returned 8/1 or shorter
• 16 of the last 18 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
• 11 of the last 16 winners rated 134 or higher (7 of last 13, rated 138+)
• 3 back-to-back winners in the last 14
• 4 of the last 19 winners owned by JP McManus
• Trainer Paul Nicholls has won the race 4 times
❌Negative Princess Royal Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase Trends
• Horses that ran in a handicap race that season haven’t got a good record
• Avoid horses that hadn’t won a race under rules
• Just 2 winners in the last 49 years aged 12 or older
• 30 of the last 39 horses aged 11+ (priced in single figures) have lost – but the 2019 winner – Hazel Hill – defied this trend
• Just one 6 year-old winner in the last 38 runnings
• Only 2 winners aged 7 since 2000
• Avoid ex-handicappers rated 140+ in their careers
• Avoid horses that raced 35 days or longer ago
• British bred horses are 1-90 (last 23 runnings) (Sine Nomine, 2024)
• Just 2 winners since 2000 hadn’t run within the last 53 days
• Horses aged 11+ are just 5 from 276 since 1990
• Just 4 winners since 2000 didn’t finish in the top 3 last time out
• Gordon Elliott has never won the race
5:20 – Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (0-145) 2m 4f 56y RTV
2025 Winner: WODHOOH (9/2)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Danny Gilligan
UK/Irish: Irish
✅Positive Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle Trends
• 15 of the last 17 winners were 2nd season-hurdlers
• 12 of the last 15 winners placed in the top 3 last time
• All of the last 17 winners carried 11-1 or more
• 3 of the last 8 winners had top-weight
• 7 of the last 10 winners carried 11-7 to 11-10
• All 17 winners aged 7 or younger (5-7)
• 14 of the last 17 winners aged 5 or 6
• 11 or the last 14 winners rated 138+
• 15 of the last 17 winners had 8 or less runs over hurdles
• 7 of the last 12 winners were Irish-based Novices
• Irish have won 10 of the last 15 (7 making handicap debuts)
• Look for Henderson, Nicholls, Mullins, Elliot-trained horses
• 14 of the 17 winners were placed in the top 4 last time out
• 9 of the 17 winners won last time out
• 7 of the last 12 winners had run over a longer trip that season
• 9 of the 17 winners were rated 133-139
• 9 of the 17 winners returned at a double-figure price (13 of the last 17 were 16/1 or less)
• 5 and 6 year-olds have won 15 of last 17 runnings
• Look for jockeys that have ridden 20+ winners
• Willie Mullins is 4 from 31 runners in the race (won 4 of the last 15 runnings)
• Respect any Gigginstown House Stud-owned runners (4 winners, 5 places)
• Paul Nicholls has won the race twice in the last 13 years
• Gordon Elliott has won 4 of the last 9 runnings
• Trainer Joseph O’Brien has won 2 of the last 7
• Nicholls, Elliott, Mullins and O’Brien have won 11 of the last 13 between them
• JP McManus has owned 2 of the last 7
❌Negative Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle Trends
• Despite being named after his father the David Pipe stable has a poor record so far (0 from 23, inc 3 favs)
• Horses aged 8+ are 0-from 77
• Only one winner in last 14 rated 136 or lower (since become 0-145)
• Just 1 winning fav in the 17-year history (9-15 returned in double-figures)
• Only 4 winners have previous Festival experience
• Horses with 11st or less are currently 0-from-121
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