---
title: "Newton Abbot Chase Tips: Centara’s Progressive Form Against Breaking Cover’s Weight Test"
canonical: "https://readhorseracing.com/2026/08/27/newton-abbot-chase-tips-centara-breaking-cover/"
type: "post"
language: "en-GB"
author: "Sebastian Fletcher"
section: "News"
published: "2026-08-27T06:08:15Z"
modified: "2026-08-27T06:08:15Z"
---

# Newton Abbot Chase Tips: Centara’s Progressive Form Against Breaking Cover’s Weight Test

Newton Abbot chase tips for Thursday 27 August centre on a genuine class fight in the 6:12 feature—the Md Elite Cleaning Handicap Steeple Chase—where the official ratings tell only half the story. Breaking Cover heads the field as the top-rated runner at 129, yet his recent form and the weight he carries raise a pressing question: does his rating reflect a horse approaching the ceiling of his ability, or genuine staying power over two miles of good ground? This is where Newton Abbot chase tips demand a closer look at the progressive runner below him in the betting.

The puzzle this Newton Abbot chase tips preview solves is whether to follow the market’s appetite for established quality or to back the upside argument offered by a horse still finding improvement. Centara arrives at 11st 12lb off a 39-day break, rated 127 on official figures but carrying a performance rating of 132—a seven-point gap that whispers of a runner closer to his ceiling than his floor. Breaking Cover, by contrast, runs at 12st 0lb with a two-pound rating advantage but finished fourth in each of his last two starts. The margin for error between them is slim, yet the trajectory could not be more different.

## Centara’s Rising Trajectory Challenges The Favourite’s Weight Problem

According to the progressive form analysis and the weight profile each must shoulder, Centara holds a meaningful edge over a field where Breaking Cover’s official rating masks the practical burden facing him. The top-rated runner carries 168 lb, the heaviest impost in the race and a weight that has pinned him in fourth place twice recently. Centara, by contrast, carries 166 lb—two pounds less—and that small differential matters when margins decide two-mile chases over good ground. The performance rating of 132 suggests he has more in reserve than his official 127 implies, a progressive profile that Newton Abbot chase tips should favour when the ground is as sound as this.

### Centara’s Performance Rating Edge: Where The Real Strength Lies

The seven-point gap between Centara’s official rating of 127 and his performance rating of 132 tells the story of a horse whose recent runs have outrun the handicap. A win five starts back, followed by varied efforts since, paints a picture not of a horse in decline but one still climbing the ladder. Paul Nicholls holds a strike rate of 34% at Newton Abbot since August 2023—the strongest trainer record among the contenders—and that yard statistics matter at a course where consistency tells. Centara has experience of both the distance and the going, and at a jump racing centre such as Newton Abbot, where testing two-mile chases are commonplace, that familiarity is not a minor asset. Newton Abbot chase tips that overlook this progressive angle may miss a runner with genuine upside.

### Breaking Cover’s Rating Advantage Comes With Too Much Weight

Breaking Cover’s official rating of 129 is the highest in the race, yet his last two starts have ended in fourth place, each at shorter odds and heavier weights than Centara will shoulder. At 168 lb, he carries a burden that has proven too much, and the two-pound gap to Centara is not trivial when Newton Abbot chase tips must weigh the margins that decide Class 2 contests. Chad Bament, his jockey, holds a record of 0% from 10 rides at Newton Abbot—a record that does not inspire confidence, though the trainer Anthony Honeyball is proven at the track with a 21% strike rate. The complication is that Bament’s lack of success at this venue adds another layer of risk to a horse already struggling with the weights.

## The Three-Way Threat That Narrows The Margin

Centara and Breaking Cover pull clear of their rivals on the ratings, yet Newton Abbot chase tips must account for Obsessedwithyou, Gower Prince and Ice In The Veins, each of whom brings sufficient quality to disrupt the selection. The following table compares the leading contenders on the metrics that decide this two-mile chase:

| Runner | Official Rating | Performance Rating | Weight (lb) | Days Since Last Run |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Breaking Cover | 129 | 134 | 168 | 39 |
| Centara | 127 | 132 | 166 | 39 |
| Obsessedwithyou | 125 | 125 | 166 | 39 |
| Ice In The Veins | 113 | 122 | 152 | 58 |

The table confirms that the top two—Breaking Cover and Centara—hold a two and four-point advantage respectively over Obsessedwithyou on official ratings, yet Centara’s performance rating of 132 sits just two points behind Breaking Cover’s, and three points clear of a rival who has won twice and placed three times in her last five starts. What matters most in Newton Abbot chase tips is that Centara’s progressive profile—the gap between his official and performance marks—suggests room for improvement where Breaking Cover’s 134 performance rating may already reflect his ceiling. Obsessedwithyou brings consistency but arrives after 39 days off the track, fitness to prove against a form rival.

## Where The Value Sits Elsewhere On The Card

Newton Abbot chase tips should not stop at the feature, as the meeting offers genuine value in other competitive heats. The 6:42 Class 5 Handicap Hurdle—a test of 26 furlongs and 105 yards—presents a progressive mare in My Girl Katie, who arrives with back-to-back wins and three victories in her last five starts. Rated 92, she carries 162 lb and makes an appealing case at 6/4 in a field where the top-rated Final Entry at 98 must shoulder 168 lb after a 42-day absence. My Girl Katie’s recent form and the five-day turnaround since her last outing suggest a mare still finding momentum, making her the value selection in a race where Newton Abbot chase tips often overlook the progressive angle in favour of top-rated runners.

### My Girl Katie’s Sharp Form In The Hurdle Feature

The 6:42 tells a similar story to the chase: a progressive runner outrunning the ratings. My Girl Katie’s three wins in five starts paint a mare in the form of her life, and at Newton Abbot—where the good ground and stamina test suit her profile—she holds every advantage. Trainer Grace Harris holds a record of 3 wins from 15 runs over the last 14 days (20%), and that recent form matters when selecting Newton Abbot chase tips or any hurdle runner in comparable shape. The quick five-day turnaround is the only query, yet for a mare arriving off back-to-back wins, freshness is less of a concern than for one returning off a long break. Newton Abbot chase tips that back My Girl Katie in the hurdle are following the same logic that should govern the feature race: progressive form trumps static ratings when good ground and stamina are in play.

## The Ultimate Verdict: Can Centara’s Progressive Form Overcome Breaking Cover’s Top Rating At Newton Abbot?

The answer rests on whether Newton Abbot chase tips should prioritise official ratings or the trajectory those ratings reflect. Breaking Cover holds the higher mark and the longer racing career, yet his recent form—two fourths at similar weights—suggests he is closer to his ceiling than his floor. Centara’s seven-point gap between official and performance ratings is the compass that should guide the selection. At 166 lb over two miles on good ground, he carries a manageable burden; at 168 lb, Breaking Cover faces the same challenge that pinned him fourth twice recently.

Centara is the selection for Newton Abbot chase tips on this feature, conditional on the form holding true and the progressive profile continuing. The margin to Breaking Cover is narrow enough that a slip in performance would see the advantage reversed, yet the combination of progressive ratings, a lighter weight, and experience of Newton Abbot’s two-mile test makes the case compelling. If the ground remains good and Centara’s recent trajectory holds, he will make that slim advantage count in a Class 2 heat where the progressive runner beats the established favourite on this evidence.

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