Bellewstown in late August asks questions no other Irish track quite asks. The hill above Drogheda turns eight furlongs into a stamina exercise, the ground rarely rides the way the description suggests, and a wide draw over a distance like 7f195y can be worth more than a stone of handicap mark. Tuesday brings eight races between 4.20 and 8.02 on ground officially Good To Yielding under a fine but cloudy sky, and anyone assembling Bellewstown tips for the evening has to start with the shape of the track before touching the form book.
The operational puzzle is concentrated in the €18,000 feature, the 6.02 Gleeson’s Bar, Drogheda, Home Of Racing Handicap, run over that same 7f195y with 15 declared. The market has settled on two runners at the head of affairs — Elusive Path at 7/2 and Goal Exceeded at 9/2 — yet neither of them tops the ratings for the race. The horses that do are available at three and four times the price. That mismatch, and whether it is justified by weight, draw and freshness, is what this preview sets out to settle.
The Course Record Book Since August 2023 Reshapes Tuesday’s Bellewstown Tips
Three years of Bellewstown results, measured from 25 August 2023, explain a good deal of the money. Colin Keane has ridden 16 winners from 63 rides here in that period, a strike rate of 25% with an A/E of 1.14 and a level-stakes profit of +2.91 points — the sort of record that stands up on a track where local knowledge is genuinely worth something. Ger Lyons, meanwhile, has sent out eight winners from 26 runners at the course, a 31% strike rate with an A/E of 1.30 and +9.08 points to level stakes. The starting point for any set of Bellewstown tips is that when that yard and that rider combine here, the horse is usually worth a hard look.
Elusive Path is that horse. He is placed in each of his last three starts without winning, he has run over the trip, and he carries 9st 4lb off a mark of 76 from stall ten. The reservations are 41 days off the track and a performance figure of 79 that puts him fourth on the numbers rather than first. At 7/2 he is priced as though the profile is stronger than it reads.
Glyndwr: Top-Rated, Top Weight And Friendless At 14/1
The best figure in the race belongs to Glyndwr, whose performance rating of 83 edges the field, backed by an official mark of 80. Gerard O’Leary’s gelding was third two starts back — comfortably the pick of his recent efforts — and he has run over this trip before, which matters on a course that punishes the unfamiliar. The catch is written all over the racecard: 10st 0lb, stall 18, and no win in his last five starts. Nicola Burns’s 5lb claim takes some of the sting out of the weight. At 14/1 he is the sort of runner a handicap of this depth exists to produce.
Morehampton And The Single Pound That Separates Him
A pound behind on the figures sits Morehampton, rated 82 on performance and 79 officially, with a speed figure of 79 that is among the better ones on show. Johnny Murtagh’s three-year-old was third last time out, returns after 18 days and has both the trip and the going in the book. The negative is a barren run of six starts, and the yard is quiet at 2/31 (6%) over the last fortnight, though a run-to-form figure of 46% suggests the horses are not out of sorts. Ben Coen takes the ride and 9st 7lb from stall seven is a far more workable assignment than Glyndwr’s. He is 9/1.
The Weights Trap: Why The Top Of This Handicap Pays For Its Own Rating
The complicating factor is the one every 15-runner handicap throws up — the horses with the best figures are the ones humping the weight up a stiff hill. This is how the leading contenders in the 6.02 compare on the metrics that actually decide the Bellewstown tips question here.
| Horse | Official rating | Best performance rating | Market price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Glyndwr | 80 | 83 | 14/1 |
| Morehampton | 79 | 82 | 9/1 |
| Bundle Of Interest | 70 | 81 | 11/1 |
| Goal Exceeded | 76 | 80 | 9/2 |
| Elusive Path | 76 | 79 | 7/2 |
The line that leaps out is Bundle Of Interest. Willie McCreery’s filly is officially rated 70 but posts a performance figure of 81, a full ten points of daylight between what the handicapper thinks of her and what the form suggests she is capable of, and she carries just 9st 4lb as a result. Her yard is running at 16% over the past two weeks and she comes here quickly, nine days on. Set against that is a bleak sequence — winless in five, with a couple of sevenths in the book — and a wide berth in stall 16. Elusive Path and Goal Exceeded, the two at the head of the betting, are the pair with the least rating in hand relative to their weight, and that is the crux of the value case across these Bellewstown tips: the market is paying for reliability rather than for upside.
Where The Value Spills Into The Rest Of The Bellewstown Tips Card
The same pattern repeats through the supporting races, which are unusually competitive for a midweek evening in Meath. The 4.55 Ploughman Bar & Grill Handicap (Div I) is a 0-60 scramble in which Brains tops the figures on 62 despite an official mark of just 56, arriving fit off a five-day turnaround with a speed figure of 73 to his name. The percentage angle, though, belongs to Wegotogether at 5/1: Gavin Cromwell’s yard is 7/28 (25%) over the last fortnight and the filly’s own figure of 62 matches the top of the field, even if 101 days off the track is a genuine question. More of our race-by-race analysis is collected in today’s racing tips.
Perfect Judgement Tops The Figures In The Second Division
Perfect Judgement is the one to be with in the 5.30 divide. Ranked top of the field on a performance figure of 67 off an official mark of 59, he ran a fine second last time and comes back after only 13 days with the trip and the going already proven. He is 13/2. The obvious danger is Land Of The Giants, rated 63 and representing Adrian McGuinness at 5/25 (20%) over the past fortnight, while Medieval Night’s figure of 61 keeps him in the argument despite 10st 1lb. As with so many of Tuesday’s Bellewstown tips, the winner is likely to come from a runner well ahead of its official mark rather than the one at the head of the weights.
Namiid Sets The Standard Over Five Furlongs
The 7.02 Gibney’s Of Gormanstown Handicap over 5f3y looks the most straightforward race on the card. Namiid is rated 85 officially and 86 on performance, the best figure in the line-up, and the three-year-old was third last time out and runner-up two starts before that with course-and-distance experience behind him. He shoulders 10st 3lb from stall three, but Patrick McGettigan’s 5lb claim helps, and 6/1 looks generous for the top-rated runner in an eleven-runner sprint. Bad Boy Rizz on 82 is the likeliest to press him at 11/2, with Cuban Grey’s speed figure of 83 worth respecting at 7/1. Later, in the 8.02 qualified riders’ handicap over 2m1f110y, Boxing Great won last time out and has experience of the ground, and his figure of 77 makes him the most solid of the fancied runners at 4/1.
The Ultimate Verdict: Can The Best-Rated Horse Beat The Market In The 6.02 Bellewstown Feature?
The honest answer is conditional. If the ground stays on the easy side of Good To Yielding and the race is run at a genuine gallop up the hill, Glyndwr’s superior figure of 83 and his proven experience over the trip give him a real chance of making 14/1 look a considerable overestimate — but only if he handles 10st 0lb from the widest berth, and that is a lot to ask of a horse without a win in five. Take the weight and the draw at face value and the argument shifts to Morehampton, a pound worse off on the ratings but far better treated in the conditions of the race, and available at 9/1.
On balance, the preferred angle among Tuesday’s Bellewstown tips is Morehampton each-way at 9/1, with Glyndwr the one to catch at a bigger price for those willing to forgive the weight, and Bundle Of Interest the each-way saver on the strength of a mark ten pounds below her best form. Elusive Path is a solid horse in a strong hand and the course record of his rider and trainer is not to be dismissed lightly, but 7/2 leaves nothing behind for the risk in a fifteen-runner handicap on this track.
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