There are a dozen ways to try and pick the winner of the big one at Ayr this Saturday, but if you want to put history on your side, the smartest move is to let the stats do the heavy lifting.
Digging into the Scottish Grand National trends is easily the best way to whittle down a crowded field.
💡See Andy Newton’s Scottish Grand National tips and 1-2-3 best bets.
At a Glance: The Key Scottish Grand National Trends and Stats 📈
- 22/22 – Ran 57 days or less ago
- 19/22 – Top 6 last time out
- 18/22 – Aged 8 or older
- 18/22 – Fallen or unseated no more than once
- 18/22 – From a different stable that’s won the race
- 18/22 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
- 17/22 – French or Irish bred
- 15/22 – Won over 3m or further
- 15/22 – Last ran between 30-57 days ago
- 15/22 – Placed in the first three in last race
- 14/22 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
- 14/22 – Returned a double-figure price
- 14/22 – From the first 7 in the betting market
- 14/22 – Aged between 8-10 years-old
- 8/22 – Won their last race
- 7/22 – Won (fences) at Ayr
- 6/22 – Had won over 3m7f or further
- 3/22 – Priced 15/2 in the betting
- 3/22 – Favourites (or joint)
- 2/22 – Trained by Willie Mullins (Last 2 winners)
- 2/22 – Ran in the Grimthorpe Chase (Doncaster) last time out
- 2/22 – Trained by Christian Williams (2 of the last 4 winners)
- 2/22 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of last 9 winners)
- 2/22 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
- The last outright winning favourite was in 1999 (Young Kenny, 1999)
- 2 of the last 13 winners were won by a previous winner of the race
- Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the race 3 times
- The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12.5/1
Plus see ALL the 2026 Scottish Grand National runners, silks, colours, profiles and star ratings here.
Scottish Grand National Pointers: Why the Favourite Usually Falters 📉
If you’re the type who likes to back the Scottish Grand National market leader, you might want to look away now.
One of the most glaring stats from this race is the absolutely dismal record of outright favourites.
Since 2022, we’ve seen two joint or co-favourites land the prize – Kitty’s Light and Win My Wings – but neither was the clear, standalone choice at the top of the betting.
Then in 2017 we saw another joint-jolly when the Paul Nicholls-trained Vincente won.
Before them, you have to go all the way back to Paris Pike in 2000 to find another joint-Scottish Grand National favourite winner.
The Last Winning OUTRIGHT Scottish Grand National Winner Was In 1999
Here’s the kicker: the last time an outright market leader won the Scottish Grand National prize money in their own right was Young Kenny in 1999.
That’s a 26-year drought since Brendan Powell steered home that Peter Beaumont-trained eight-year-old.
Just look again last year (202) – Olympic Man went off as the 15/2 favourite and came 7th (beaten just over 40 lengths).
This year, the likes of Kim Roque, King Of Answers and the Willie Mullins Scottish Grand National runner Road To Home, are the likely market leaders.
It’s a clear signal that you shouldn’t be afraid to look further down the card.
In fact, the average winning price over the last ten years is a healthy 12.5/1.
Fitness is Everything: The 57-Day Rule 🏃
As well as the dire favourites trend, another big takeaway stat is that ALL of the last 22 winners had raced within the previous 57 days.
Last year’s winner, CAPTAIN CODY was in action prior to his Ayr win at the Cheltenham Festival the previous month.
This is a massive red flag for the likes of Montregard, who is owned by JP McManus – he last ran 63 days ago.
Plus, Magna Sam (117 days), Katate Dori (56) and last year’s third Our Power (93).
Recent Form: Don’t Ignore a Strong Last Run 💪
If a horse didn’t show up in their last outing, they rarely show up here in the Scottish Grand National.
Roughly 86% of the last 22 winners finished in the top six last time out.
Which is a plus for many of the big players – Kim Roque (4th), King Of Answers (2nd), Ask Brewster (1st), Isaac Des Obeaux (1st) and Road To Home (2nd).
If you want to be even more selective, 15 of the last 22 winners (68%) actually finished in the top three in their prep race.
The Weight Factor: Make 11st 1lbs Your Cut-Off 🏋️
Weight is the ‘Great Equalizer’ in handicap horse races, and history suggests the lighter, the better most of the time.
However, that said, last week’s Aintree Grand National winner I Am Maximus shouldered a massive 11st 10lbs to victory – the biggest burden since Red Rum in the 1970’s.
But, when looking at the Scottish National – 18 of the last 22 winners carried 11st 1lb or less.
Even more telling? 14 of those winners carried 10st 9lb or less, including 2024 winner Macdermott (10st 7lb).
Those carrying more than 11st 1lb this year-and thus against one of the key Scottish Grand National trends are the following.
Blaze The Way, Quebecois, King Of Answers, Isaac Des Obeaux, Road To Home, Our Power, Herakles Westwood, Guard The Moon, Katate Dori, Duffle Coat, Ask Brewster and Stolen Silver.
Experience Matters: The Age Profile👴
Last week at Aintree, I Am Maximus became the seventh 8-year-old to win the Grand National in the last decade. But what about the Scottish version?
While Macdermott won as a 6-year-old in 2024, he was the exception to the rule-the youngest since Earth Summit in 1994.
The sweet spot is definitely 8 or older, a group that accounts for 18 of the last 22 winners.
Backed up again in 2025 with the 8yold Captain Cody winning.
But we have seen FOUR winning 7yolds since 2013, so maybe this stat is turning a tad.
Younger horses (aged 7 or under) in this year are – Quebecois, King Of Answers, Road To Home, Ask Brewster, Montregard, Kim Roque, Kap Vert, J’Arrive De L’Est and Chasingouttheblues.
With Kap Vert and Kim Roque the two really young horses (aged 6).
The Masters of Ayr: Paul Nicholls and Willie Mullins 🏇
While Christian Williams has dominated recently (winning two of the last four), he doesn’t have an entry this year.
Willie Mullins is also chasing a famous three-timer in the race, after taking the last two – he runs Road To Home.
While the Nigel Twiston-Davies as the most successful active trainer in the race.
He’s tasted success here three times: Killone Abbey (1991), Earth Summit (1994), and Hello Bud (2009).
But he’s also not got a runner this year – pulling Guard The Moon at the final declaration stage.
It’s also worth noting Paul Nicholls as he’s landed this race three time (Vincente, 2016 & 2027) and Belmont King (1997).
He saddles recent Midlands National winner Issac Des Obeaux and Quebecois.
Scottish Grand National Betting Odds 2026
- KIM ROQUE 6/1
- KING OF ANSWERS 6/1
- ROAD TO HOME 7/1
- ASK BREWSTER 10/1
- ISAAC DES OBEAUX 10/1
- MONTREGARD 10/1
- QUEBECOIS 12/1
- CHASINGOUTTHEBLUES 12/1
- BLAZE THE WAY 18/1
- GIT MAKER 18/1
- HERAKLES WESTWOOD 20/1
- OUR POWER 20/1
- KATATE DORI 22/1
- KAP VERT 25/1
- PROMONTORY 25/1
- FAMOUS BRIDGE 33/1
- MAXIMILIAN 33/1
- GABBYS CROSS 40/1
- COLLECTORS ITEM 50/1
- MAGNA SAM 66/1
- STOLEN SILVER 100/1
Note: Odds listed are subject to change
Scottish Grand National Date 2026🗓️
📅 Date: Saturday, April 18th 2026
⌚ Time: 3:35pm
🏇 Racecourse: Ayr
🔄 Trip: 4m
💷 Winner: £112,540
📺 TV: ITV Racing / Racing TV
Recent Scottish Grand National Winners
- 2025: Captain Cody (9/1)
- 2024: Macdermott (18/1)
- 2023: Kitty’s Light (4/1 jfav)
- 2022: Win My Wings (13/2 cfav)
- 2021: Mighty Thunder (8/1)
- 2019: Takingrisks (25/1)
- 2018: Joe Farrell (33/1)
- 2017: Vicente (9/1 jfav)
- 2016: Vicente (14/1)
- 2015: Wayward Prince (25/1)
- 2014: Al Co (40/1)
WATCH: Captain Cody Winning The 2025 Scottish Grand National
🏆Captain Cody wins Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase 🏆
A 1-2 for Willie Mullins 🥇🥈#ITVRacing | @ayrracecourse | @CobdenHarry | @WillieMullinsNH pic.twitter.com/8ApVbL7eeq
— ITV Racing (@itvracing) April 12, 2025
