If you’re into your horse racing stats, then here at ReadHorseRacing.com we’ve got everything you need. We’ve pulled together the key 2025 Cheltenham Festival trends for Day One to help you put history firmly on your side.
As top horse racing pundit Andy Newton detailed profiles based on past winners of each of the seven races on Champion Hurdle Day, so you can see exactly what it usually takes to get the job done.
Also See Cheltenham Festival Trends For……..
- Cheltenham Festival Day Two Trends (Weds 11th March, 2026)
- Cheltenham Festival Day Three Trends (Thurs 12th March, 2026)
- Cheltenham Festival Day Four Trends (Friday 13th March, 2026)
Plus get Andy Newton’s popular daily horse racing cheat sheet, including his NAP and Lay of the Day.
And his Cheltenham tips for day one here.
How To Use The Cheltenham Festival Trends 2026 📈
Let’s be clear — trends aren’t the holy grail.
They won’t magically hand you every winner at the 2026 Cheltenham Festival.
But they are a powerful tool, especially when it comes to whittling down the field in the big handicaps.
When you study past Cheltenham winners, patterns start to emerge. Certain ages crop up time and again.
Specific prep runs prove key. Trainers dominate particular races. And when something keeps happening year after year, there’s every chance history could repeat itself.
Cheltenham Festival trends come in all shapes and sizes, so it pays to be selective.
Age, weight carried, trainer record, recent form — they all matter. The trick is knowing which ones deserve your full attention.
Just like the two races that haven’t seen a winning Cheltenham Festival favourite in over 10 years.
Apply those trends to the final declarations and suddenly the picture becomes clearer.
You can quickly rule out runners that don’t fit the strongest historical markers, while pushing those that tick the right boxes onto your best-bets shortlist.
Take the opening-day feature, the Champion Hurdle.
A huge 80% of the last 15 winners (12 in total) arrived unbeaten that season. And 31 of the last 36 winners — another 86% — had won their most recent race.
So, with that in mind – let’s dive straight into Andy Newton’s 2026 Cheltenham Festival trends for Day One.
Cheltenham Festival Trends 2026: The Big Stats To Help Put History On Your Side 📈
Tuesday 10th March 2026 (Old Course)
1:20 – Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 87y ITV
2025 Winner: Kopek Des Bordes
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
UK/Irish: Irish
✅Positive Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Trends
• 25 of the last 29 winners won their last race
• 14 of the last 16 winners came from the first 4 in the market
• 13 of the last 14 winners had won a graded Novice Hurdle before
• 14 of the last 22 winners had raced in at least 4 hurdles races before
• 23 of the last 31 winners ran in the last 45 days
• 9 of the last 13 winners were either Mullins (6) or Henderson-trained (3)
• 28 of the last 31 winners had raced that same calendar year
• Owner Rich Ricci & trainer Willie Mullins have won 3 of the last 13 runnings
• 7 of the last 12 winners had been rated 153 or more
• Irish-trained horses have won 20 of the last 34 runnings
• 5 & 6 year-olds have the best record – winning 19 of the last 21 runnings
• Willie Mullins has won the race 8 times in total and for 6 of the last 13 years
• 12 of the last 13 winners returned a single-figure price
• 12 of the last 17 winners were previous bumper winners
• Nicky Henderson has won the race 5 times
❌Negative Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Trends
• Horses that FAILED to win last time out before coming here are just 4 from the last 29. In other words, look for horses that won last time out!
• Since 1992 43 horses (44) wearing head-gear have been beaten – but Kopek Des Bordes won with a first-time hood in 2025
• We’ve seen just two ex-flat horses win since 2008
• Just 5 of the last 23 winners came here unbeaten
• Just 2 of the last 23 winners aged 7 or older
• Just 3 outright winning favourites in the last 21 runnings
• 4 year-olds are 0-15 since 2000
• Betfair Hurdle winners are 0-from-8 in the last decade
2:00 – Arkle Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) 1m 7f 199y ITV
2025 Winner: JANGO BAIE (5/1)
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Nico de Boinville
UK/Irish: UK
✅Positive Arkle Novices’ Chase Trends
• 16 of the last 21 winners had won (or been placed) at Cheltenham before
• 19 of the last 26 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 chase before
• 14 of the last 16 winners won last time out (plus 18 of the last 24)
• 24 of the last 26 winners returned 9/1 or shorter
• 15 of the last 20 winners had won at least twice over fences before
• 17 of the last 19 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
• 16 of the last 23 winners had run 3 or 4 times over fences
• 15 of the last 22 winners had run at the previous year’s Cheltenham Festival
• 9 of the last 14 winners were unbeaten over fences
• Nicky Henderson has won the race 8 times
• Willie Mullins has won 6 of the last 11 runnings
• 11 of the last 14 winners trained by Willie Mullins (6) or Nicky Henderson (5)
• 10 of the last 14 favourites have won
❌Negative Arkle Novices’ Chase Trends
• Only 3 of the last 39 winners failed to win or finish second last time out
• Just 3 of the last 35 winners started 11/1 or bigger in the betting
• Only 4 of the last 34 winners were older than 7 years-old
• The last horse aged 9 (or older) to win was in 1988
• Ex-flat horses have a poor record
• Only 2 winners since 2000 won with headgear
• 5 year-olds are 0-17 since 2007
• Shishkin (2021), Douvan (2016) and Altior (2017) were the first Supreme Hurdle winners (previous season) that have followed-up in this race since 1965
• Trainer Paul Nicholls has had 12 unplaced from his last 13 runners
2:40 – McCoy Contractors Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Fred Winter) 2m 87y ITV
2025 Winner: PUTURHANDSTOGETHER (17/2)
Trainer – Joseph O’Brien
Jockey – Mark Walsh
UK/Irish: Irish
✅Positive Fred Winter Trends
• 12 of the last 21 winners had run exactly 3 times over hurdles before
• French bred horses have a good record
• 10 of the last 21 winners started their careers in France
• Respect Fillies
• 14 of the last 21 winners carried 11st+
• 9 of the last 21 winners won last time out
• 10 of the last 15 winners all came from the bottom half of the weights/handicap
• 11 of the last 21 had run in the last 25 days
• David Pipe, Paul Nicholls, Gordon Elliot (4 of last 13), Joseph O’Brien (3 of the last 7) and Alan King-trained horses often do well
• 6 of the last 14 winners returned between 25/1 and 40/1 (7 of the last 14 priced 25/1+)
• 13 of the last 21 winners returned a double-figure price
• Respect horses wearing headgear
• Joseph O’Brien has trained 3 of the last 7 (including last 2)
• 15 of the last 21 winners were rated between 124-134
• 8 of the last 18 winners were British-trained
• Irish have trained the last 8 winners
• Trainer Paul Nicholls has won 3 of the last 16 runnings
• 16 of the last 21 winners had won no more than once over hurdles
❌Negative Fred Winter Trends
• Just 3 recent winners had last raced in January or further back
• Trainers Willie Mullins, Philip Hobbs and Venetia Williams are 0 from 45 between them
• Only 2 of the last 12 winners carried less than 11st
• Just 3 of the last 21 winners rated 135+
• Horses bred in Britain are 0-73 (last 17 years)
• Willie Mullins runners are 0 from 24 (just 4 placed in top 5 too)
• Willie Mullins has never won this race
• Only 3 winners had run in a handicap hurdle before
• No winner had raced at Cheltenham before
• Horses with 2+ wins over hurdles are just 2 from 20
3:20 – Trust Marque Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 3m 1f ITV
2025 Winner: MYRETOWN
Trainer – Lucinda Russel
Jockey – Patrick Wadge
UK/Irish: UK
✅Positive Ultima Handicap Trends
• 20 of the last 26 winners were officially rated 143 or less
• 18 of the last 25 came from the top 4 in the betting
• 21 of the last 25 winners returned 11/1 or shorter
• 19 of the last 25 were novices or second season chasers
• 10 of the last 18 winners were rated between 142-146 (8 between 142-145)
• Horses rated 140+ have won 16 of the last 25 runnings
• 10 of the last 23 won last time out
• Horses that have run well in the race before have a good record
• 10 of the last 14 winners wore headgear
• 10 of the last 16 winners had run at Cheltenham that season
• Jonjo O’Neill, Lucinda Russell, Alan King, Nicky Henderson, Tony Martin & David Pipe are trainers to note
• All winners since 2000 had won over 3m+ before
• 5 of the last 11 winners ran at Cheltenham’s January meeting
• 5 of the last 12 winners ran in the Coral Gold Cup (Hennessy) that season
• 13 of the last 17 winners had run at the Festival before
• Northern-based runners have a good record
❌Negative Ultima Handicap Trends
• Be a bit wary of horses carrying 11-04 or more in weight – 13 of the last 21 carried 10-12 or less, although the 2017 winner carried 11-12 & the 2019 winner won with 11-8 and Chianti Classico in 2024 carried 11st 4bs)
• Horses aged 11 or older are just 4 from 59 to even get placed
• Be wary of Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s currently 0 from 26
• Only 4 winners in the last 17 hadn’t raced at a previous Festival
• Only 5 winners since 2000 have returned bigger than 11/1
• The Irish have won just 2 of the last 57 runnings (since 1967)
• Irish-trained runners are 0-51 in the last 19 runnings
• Willie Mullins has never won this race
4:00 – Unibet Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 87y ITV
2025 Winner: GOLDEN ACE (25/1)
Trainer – Jeremy Scott
Jockey – Lorcan Williams
UK/Irish: UK
✅Positive Champion Hurdle Trends
• 36 of the last 42 won last time out
• 11 of the last 16 winners had run no more than 10 times over hurdles
• Horses unbeaten that season often do well (12 of last 15)
• The Irish and Nicky Henderson have won 22 of the last 27 runnings between them
• 11 of the last 17 winners came from the Henderson or Willie Mullins yards
• The Irish have won 16 of the last 27 runnings
• Owner JP McManus has won 6 of the last 16 (9 in total)
• Trainer Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 14 runnings (5 in total)
• 30 of the last 36 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old (13 of last 18)
• 17 of the last 27 winners had won at the Festival before
• 28 of the last 41 winners were placed in the first 4 at the previous season’s festival
• The Fighting Fifth Hurdle is a good guide (5 winners, 6 places in last 18 runnings)
• 14 of the last 30 winners started as flat horses
• 10 of the last 11 winners were unbeaten that season
• Look for horses that have raced at least once that calendar year
• Trainer Nicky Henderson has won the race 9 times, including 4 of the last 9 years
• 7 of the last 17 winners contested the Christmas Hurdle (Kempton)
• Mares are currently 5 from 12 during last 10 runnings
• 9 of the last 13 favourites won
• 21 of the last 25 winners had run within the last 60 days
❌Negative Champion Hurdle Trends
• Avoid horses that failed to finish in the top three last time out
• 5 year-olds are just 2 from 114 since 1985, but the 2019 winner was a 5 year-old
• Since 1927 we’ve only seen 2 winners aged 10 or older (0-32 in the last 43 runnings)
• Just 2 of the last 19 winners had raced more than 12 times over hurdles
• Just 2 horses have regained the race since 1975
• International Hurdle winners are 0-from-14 (last 22 years)
• Only 2 of the last 27 winners hadn’t raced at the Festival before
• The last Supreme Novice’ Hurdle winner to win the Champion Hurdle the following season was Constitution Hill (2023), but before that was 53 years ago (Bula)
4:40 – Sun Racing Plate Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 2m 4f 166y ITV
2025 Winner: JAGWAR (3/1 fav)
Trainer – Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero
Jockey – Jonjo O’Neill Jnr
UK/Irish: UK
✅Positive Plate Handicap Trends
• 29 of the last 38 winners were officially rated 140 or less
• 13 of the last 17 winners carried under 11-0
• Respect French-breds
• 15 of the last 21 winners had run from 25th Jan onwards
• 11 of the last 22 winners had won a race in Feb or March
• Venetia Williams & Pipe-trained runners should be noted
• The Pipe yard have won 7 of the last 28 runnings
• 18 of the last 25 winners returned at double-figure odds
• 24 of the last 34 winners had run at the Festival before (but 9 of last 14 were having Festival debut)
• 25 of the last 26 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
• 10 of the last 16 winners had 9 or less chase runs
• 7 of the last 10 winners won last time out
• The last 7 winners had won at Cheltenham that season
• 3 of the last 7 ridden by a claiming jockey
19 of the last 26 winners came from outside the top 4 in the market
• 8 of the last 10 winners were novices or second season chasers
• 20 of the last 22 winners had raced that calendar year
• Respect Gigginstown House Stud horses
❌Negative Plate Handicap Trends
• Avoid horses that are yet to win at Class 3 or better
• The Irish have only sent out 5 winners since 1982, but this could be turning with these all coming since 2016
• Willie Mullins has never won this race
• Only 4 of the last 22 winners had run more than 12 times (fences)
• Just 5 winning favourites in the last 20 years, but one in 2025 (Jagwar)
• Only 6 of last 31 winners won with 11st+
• Just 3 winners older than 9 in the last 13 years
• Only 2 of the last 22 winners hadn’t run that calendar year
5:20 – Princess Royal National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices’ Handicap Chase (Grade 2) 3m 5f 201y RTV
2025 Winner: HAITI COULEURS
Trainer – Rebecca Curtis
Jockey – Ben Jones
UK/Irish: UK
**NOTE** The race conditions were changed in 2025 – run as a Novices’ Handicap Chase – making a lot of the past trends pointless.
✅ Positive NH Chase Trends
• 13 of the last 24 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
• 9 of the last 19 had run in a chase at Cheltenham before that season
• 11 of the last 16 winners had run at a previous Cheltenham Festival
• 12 of the last 15 winners returned a single-figure price
• 15 of the last 20 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old (26 of the last 35)
• 10 of the last 16 winners had run 5+ times over fences
• 12 of the last 15 winners had run in a Graded Novice chase
• 8 of the last 15 winners had run in a Grade One Novice Chase that season
• Respect horses wearing headgear (Corbetts Cross 1st-time hood in 2024)
• 10 of the last 15 winners Irish-trained
• Look out for JP McManus-owned runners (7 winners)
• Jonjo O’Neill has trained 6 winners in the race (5-from-23)
• Jockey Derek O’Connor has 3 wins / 5 places (from 18 rides)
• Derek O’Connor & Patrick Mullins have won 7 of the last 15 (4 P Mullins, 3 O’Connor)
• Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 14 runnings
• Gordon Elliott has won the race 4 times from just 17 runners
• 3 of the last 8 winners owned by Ronnie Bartlett
• Favourites have won 5 of the last 16 runnings (31%)
❌ Negative NH Chase Trends
• 5 and 6 year-olds are just 2 from 84 since 1989
• Favourites have won 5 of the last 16 runnings
• Just 2 of the last 34 winners were aged 6 years-old
• Trainer Paul Nicholls has NEVER won this race – he’s currently 0 from 19
• Trainer Nicky Henderson has NEVER won this race
• Horses with less than 3 chase starts often don’t fare well
• Just 2 winners in the last 17 returned bigger than 12/1
FROMTHESTABLES – Get Top Trainer Info Direct To Your Inboxes….EVERY MORNING
Join up for JUST £1 to get a taster of the popular FROMTHESTABLES offering.
With leading yards under their roof, including King George VI Chase winning stable Ben Pauling.
Plus, Jamie Snowden, Warren Greatrex, Nicky Richards, Fergal O’Brien, Kim Bailey, Ollie Sangster and Charlie Fellowes – they’ve 18 top yards in total.
Info that comes DIRECT from the trainers each morning and delivered DIRECT TO YOUR INBOXES.
With a daily NAP and NB best quote from leading horse racing expert Tony Stafford.
Take a Look For Yourself – JOIN FTS HERE with PROMO CODE ‘POUNDTRIAL’
