One of the most exciting races on day one of the Cheltenham Festival is the Arkle Novices’ Chase and it’s usually a stepping stone for future greats.
And one of those possible superstars rapidly making a name for himself is Nicky Henderson’s LULAMBA. This five-year-old will have to defy one of the Arkle Novices’ Chase trends that dates all the way back to 2006.
All seven races on day one of the Cheltenham Festival including the Arkle Novices’ Chase will be live on ITV Racing.
It’s Been 20 Years Since A Five-Year-Old Won An Arkle Novices’ Chase
One of the biggest Arkle Novices’ Chase trends tells us it’s particularly hard to win the race as a five-year-old and it hasn’t been done since 2006. The last to do so was Voy Por Ustedes and he was trained by Alan King.
There hasn’t been loads of five-year-olds running in this race but 17 of them have lost over the years, including Majborough last season.
Majborough was well fancied to win the race last season with an SP of 1/2 but his jumping was found out and the Willie Mullins-trained horse was eventually beaten by older rivals.
And the stats against five-year-olds go back even further, and their record wasn’t great even prior to 2006 with just six of them winning since 1958.
All 17 Five-Year-Olds Who Continued Arkle Novices’ Chase Trend Since 2006
- 2025 – Majborough (3rd)
- 2024 – No five-year-olds
- 2023 – No five-year-olds
- 2022 – Riviere D’Etel (5th), Haut En Couleurs (6th), Saint Sam (unseated rider)
- 2021 – Allmankind (4th)
- 2020 – Fakir d’Oudairies (2nd)
- 2019 – No five-year-olds
- 2018 – Saint Calvados (4th)
- 2017 – No five-year-olds
- 2016 – No five-year-olds
- 2015 – Clarcam (8th)
- 2014 – No five-year-olds
- 2013 – His Excellency (3rd)
- 2012 – No five-year-olds
- 2011 – No five-year-olds
- 2010 – No five-year-olds
- 2009 – Tatenen (fell)
- 2008 – Kruguyrova (2nd), Marodima (9th)
- 2007 – Fair Along (2nd), Jack The Giant (3rd), Good Spirit (8th), Tidal Fury (9th), Twist Magic (fell)
17 of last 19 Arkle Novice’ Chase Winners Were Aged Six Or Seven-Years-Old
It’s clear to see by the trends that being aged six or seven is key if wanting to win an Arkle, which bodes well for co-favourite and classy six-year-old Kopek Des Bordes – although he does have other trends against him.
There has been two horses since 2007 that defied this trend, Alan King’s Edwardstone in 2022 and Sizing Europe of the Henry de Bromhead stable in 2010.
Last year’s Arkle winner was Lulamba’s stablemate, six-year-old Jango Baie.
Arkle Has Been Generous To Favourites – Eight From Last 10 Won
If Lulamba foes go off as one of the Cheltenham Festival favourites, he may be able to buck the trend. Eight of the last 10 favourites have won so punters who back the favs have been in clover over the years – however last year’s favourite Majborough was turned over at 1/2.
Nicky Henderson Has Won Arkle Novices’ Chase EIGHT Times
Again, if Lulamba is looking to buck the age trend in the Arkle then he’s in good hands to do so considering Nicky Henderson has won the race a record eight times.
Fresh after winning it last year with Jango Baie, it wouldn’t be the first time the Lambourn maestro has won it back-to-back.
Nicky Henderson Arkle Winners: Remittance Man (1991), Travado (1993), Tiutchev (2000), Sprinter Sacre (2012), Simonsig (2013), Altior (2017), Shishkin (2021), Jango Baie (2025)
WATCH: Jango Baie Wins Dramatic 2025 Arkle
🚀 INCREDIBLE!
Jango Baie wins the Arkle! pic.twitter.com/ybWEESr8gB
— Racing TV (@RacingTV) March 11, 2025
Key Arkle Novices’ Chase Trends
- 16 of the last 21 winners had won (or been placed) at Cheltenham before
- 19 of the last 26 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 chase before
- 14 of the last 16 winners had won last time out (plus 19 of the last 24)
- 24 of the last 26 winners returned 9/1 or shorter
- 15 of the las5 20 winners had won at least twice over fences before
- 17 of the last 19 winners were aged six or seven
- 16 of the last 23 winners had run three or four times over fences
- 15 of the last 22 winners had run at the previous year’s Cheltenham Festival
- Nine of the last 14 winners were unbeaten over fences
- Nicky Henderson has won the race 8 times
- Willie Mullins has won six of the last 11 runnings
- 11 of the last 14 winners were trained by Willie Mullins (six) or Nicky Henderson (five)
- 10 of the last 14 favourites have won
Last 10 Arkle Novices’ Chase Winners
- 2025 – Jango Baie (5/1)
- 2024 – Gaelic Warrior (2/1 f)
- 2023 – El Fabiolo (11/10 f)
- 2022 – Edwardstone (5/2 f)
- 2021 – Shishkin (4/9 f)
- 2020 – Put The Kettle On (16/1)
- 2019 – Duc Des Genievres (5/1)
- 2018 – Footpad (5/6 f)
- 2017 – Altior (1/4 f)
- 2016 – Douvan (1/4 f)
Note: The Cheltenham Festival Prize money for this year’s Arkle is £112,540 to the winner.
