What a race we have in store on the fourth and final day of the 2018 Festival. Quite possibly one of the most open renewals in recent times. A case can be made for so many of the possible runners that whatever order they finish in you would do well to predict. Odds of 4/1 the field tells it’s own story and I’m sure the bookies will be rubbing their hands together at the prospect of cleaning house one way or another. So lets look at the many serious contenders.
Might Bite
Quite rightly heads the market, unbeaten since Kempton when he was 18 lengths in front before falling at the last. He finished last year winning two novice grade ones at Cheltenham and Aintree, although he did his best to throw away the RSA when deciding to drift the width of the track up the hill. Just two races this year so far, a straightforward task at Sandown then taking the King George on Boxing Day. He has solid grade one winning form and has no issues with the track or trip, everything is in place to go extremely close. Some will have question marks over last year’s run and what may or may not happen when he jumps the last.
Native River
A year younger than Might Bite and quite possibly still improving. Has only had the one run this year in February after an enforced lay off. I thought that was mightily impressive considering he had been off for a year, Colin Tizzard said plenty had been done beforehand but still he trounced Cloudy dream who is no mug by 12 lengths. You would like to think he would improve for that run and he could certainly go and serve it up to them, guaranteed to stay and has form on soft ground if it stays wet. I would love to see him set the tempo and let them pass if they are good enough. Possibly a better and stronger horse this year.
Killultagh Vic
Definitely in the ‘who knows?’ category. Four wins on the spin in 2015, then nearly two years away from the racecourse. He made his comeback at Punchestown in December and despite numerous mistakes, returned with a win. Willie Mullins wasted no time after that sending him to a grade one. The Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown in February, where again there were a few mistakes – he was still travelling well and moved into the lead when he fell at the last. With Ruby Walsh sidelined, Paul Townend will have a decision to make.
Our Duke
Jessica Harrington has another live chance this year with Our Duke join. He really put his credentials on show when bolting up in the Irish National last year, putting 14 lengths between himself and the other 27 runners whilst also giving weight away. His next run was slightly disappointing but issues were highlighted after a thorough check up. Three months later, he returned with a fourth place in the Irish Gold Cup and then returned to the winners enclosure in the Red Mills, only Presenting Percy could get close to him that day. That form now franked too after Presenting Percy took Tuesday’s RSA Chase.
Others to consider
Road To Respect
Solid as they come, always runs his race. No Surprise to see him figure.
Definitely Red
Cracking run in the trial in January, stays and has course form. Could surprise, unlikely to win.
Total Recall
Highly progressive since joining Willie Mullins, suspect Killultagh Vic is stable number one.
Edwulf
Would be fantastic to see him run well after last year. He could outrun his odds.
Prediction and odds
Might Bite has the best form, he is a previous Festival winner too, which counts for so much. However, I just feel Native River could outstay him, especially if the rain keeps coming and we have a soft ground Gold Cup. His display in the Welsh National on really soft going was very impressive with top weight too. That would also bring Our Duke right into the mix as well. He too is a National winner in Ireland last year. It’s such an open race and one I can’t wait for!
How they’ll finish in my eyes…
1. Native River 6/1
2. Might Bite 4/1
3. Our Duke 9/1
