The stage is set for a superb renewal of the Grade Two Betfair Denman Chase at Newbury over three miles tomorrow with Colin Tizzard’s Native River taking on Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Bristol De Mai. However, who wins this fascinating contest? I take an in-depth look at both horses before deciding on my winner.
Native ready to attack
Native River has continued his upward trajectory with a brace of superb performances this term which have propelled him to a general 6/1 second-favourite for the Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup in March.
The seven-year-old son of Indian River was a well-punted winner of the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury in November, gamely fending off the challenge of Carole’s Destrier to score by half-a-length.
Under Richard Johnson, Native River looked in trouble turning for home with Johnson hard at work aboard the gelding. However, Tizzard’s charge kept responding to Johnson’s urgings in the home straight, jumping superbly out in front to outbattled and potentially outstay the rest of the field.
Native River followed that up with a superb front-running victory in the Welsh National at Chepstow in December where the progressive chaser routed a decent field of handicappers in the traditional Chepstow slog. Whilst the Brocade Racing-owned gelding idled out in front late on to only win by a length and three-quarters, that was a very impressive performance with his jumping again catching the eye.
Now back in a proper graded race off equal weights rather than a handicap, this will be Native River’s biggest test to date in a race which has been seen as a Gold Cup trial in recent years. With just three runners, it will be interesting to see how Johnson intends to ride the gelding and whether he will look to make the race a stern test of stamina.
Another factor to take into consideration is the form of Colin Tizzard’s yard who have not had a winner since Festival Trials Day. Whilst the trainer is adamant there is no cause for concern, the stable form could also sow doubt in punters’ minds.
Bristol ready to take aim at River
Progressive staying chaser Bristol De Mail will make sure this a superb contest as both he and Native River look to lay the foundations for an assault at next month’s Gold Cup.
The imposing grey has been highly tried since joining Nigel Twiston-Davies’ yard from France in 2014, bagging a pair of Grade One’s and finishing an excellent second to Black Hercules in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham last year.
The six-year-old son of Saddler Maker was very impressive in the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock last time when slamming a decent field by 22 lengths which surely suggests there is more to come from the young chaser.
The form of that race is working out well with the second that day, Otago Trail, coming out and winning at Sandown Park next time.
Officially rated 2lbs inferior to Native River, it would seem that Native River deservedly shades favouritism but Twiston Davies’ charge, a year younger and relatively lightly raced this year will enjoy the ground and it will potentially come down to how much Bristol De Mai is willing to find once asked by Jacob to go and win his race as there remains a question-mark as to who game he is in a finish.
Verdict
Native River deservedly heads the betting for this Grade Two contest. Whilst I would worry about having two hard races in two of the toughest handicaps of the year, he looks to take his racing well and I have a feeling he will out-jump, out-stay and eventually out-battle Bristol De Mai who in a titanic tussle up the home straight with a horse like Native River an image which I don’t think sees him come out on top.
Whilst Tizzard will still be disappointed over the defeat of Thistlecrack, the Denman Chase provides Native River with a great opportunity to put down a marker to Thistlecrack and other stablemate Cue Card as to what a significant Gold Cup contender he could prove to be.
Selection – Native River 3pts Win, 5/6.
