What does Thistlecrack’s injury mean for the Gold Cup?
The gut-wrenching news that Thistlecrack would miss the Cheltenham Gold Cup in March has left the door ajar for some of the outsiders in the original ante-post market to come to the fore.
Here’s a look at the leading players now:
Native River 3/1 favourite – an impressive winner of the Denman Chase, he looks to have the right sort of profile for this race. He is a thorough stayer who has form over further and will surely love the test of stamina the Gold Cup offers. He was massive threat to Thistlecrack even before the latter’s injury news broke and he looks well-placed to take advantage.
Cue Card 7/2 – coming into the race, he was being viewed as the stable’s third-string but the 11-year-old was magnificent in the Ascot Chase at the weekend and after falling three fences from home in the Blue Riband event last year, I can see him going very close this year.
Djakadam 11/2 – second in this race two year’s running he has arguably been overlooked for this contest as a result of his pretty disappointing run when only third in the Lexus at Leopardstown. With Ruby Walsh on board, he will given his course form surely be thereabouts at the finish
Sizing John 8/1 – The Irish Gold Cup winner is arguably the most exposed runner in the field. Stepped up to three miles for that contest last time, it remains to be seen whether he will stay the extra two and a half-furlongs at Prestbury Park and that would put me off him.
Outlander 9/1 – The Lexus winner has been kept fresh since that race and the way he stayed on that day suggests stamina won’t be a problem. He looks a lively each-way player.
Champagne West 20/1 – Huge fan of this horse. Never scaled the heights he should have when trained by Philip Hobbs in England but Henry De Bromhead has done a quite wonderful job with this lad and he was an excellent winner of the ultra competitive Thyestes Chase at Thurles on his last outing. His jumping has always been a worry but De Bromhead looks to have ironed that out quite beautifully and he looks a rejuvenated horse. He probably is not good enough to win a Gold Cup but at 20/1 he could be excellent each-way value.
Don Poli 20/1 – Well touted for this contest last year but was always outpaced, staying on to finish third. Arguably he has been pretty disappointing since. It was a good run in the Lexus to finish second to Outlander but having to lead a long way from home, he never really looked like being the winner in the Irish Gold Cup. His stamina is guaranteed but it would be disappointing if he was winning this race.
Empire Of Dirt 20/1 – Second to Sizing John in the Irish Gold Cup last time. His stamina, like Don Poli, who was third in that race, is assured but again he shouldn’t be troubling the judge as based on Cue Card’s career best official rating of 176, Empire Of Dirt 16lbs inferior to him. However, he is improving with every run but at 10-years-old surely his potential has to stop somewhere and this could be a step too far.
Bristol De Mai 20/1 – Bitterly disappointing behind Native River in the Denman Chase last time although suggestion was that he was lame after the contest so connections have gone for the Gold Cup. He has course form but I’m just not convinced by him and think Native River would have beaten him fair and square even if he wasn’t inconvenienced by his injury at Newbury. I just can’t set him getting involved.
More Of That 25/1 – Has been pretty disappointing since World Hurdle win but hinted at revival in Irish Gold Cup last time where he was running a cracker under a quiet ride before falling at the final fence. Whether he would have been involved in the finish is debatable but Jonjo O’Neill has always held this horse in high regard and after finishing 3rd in the RSA Chase last year, maybe the course can reignite him.
Minella Rocco 25/1 – Another who is highly respected at Jackdaws. He beat Native River in the four-miler at last year’s Festival and is improving. He fell last time in the Irish Gold Cup and he is another who could run into a place.
Verdict – I am a massive fan of Cue Card. He loves this place and connections will be desperate to go close in this race after last year’s fall. He was superb in the Ascot Chase and whilst I greatly fear Native River, this could be Cue Card’s last chance to shine in this race and I fancy him to win.
At a price he might be outclassed but Champagne West has always been a horse I have been fond of and he has looked a different horse with De Bromhead. He would be my each-way play but I was also pleased with how More Of That shaped last time.